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000
FXUS64 KOUN 092256
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
556 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

An upper level low and associated vort max, just south of El Paso,
will track northeast across West Texas this evening and
overnight. Mid-level convergence appears to be concentrated just
to our west during the late afternoon and early evening, but
should gradually shift eastward into western north Texas and
southwestern Oklahoma during the evening. This should result in
better precipitation coverage and perhaps areas of excessive
rainfall. Although elevated instability is not overly high,
effective cloud layer shear is rather strong which may promote a
chance of some hail and strong wind gusts.

Overnight, the focus for rain and thunderstorms is expected to shift
northward.  Models differ somewhat on how much drier air will be
advected into northern Oklahoma.  Did trim guidance PoPs across
parts of far northern Oklahoma and expect a better focus for showers
and thunderstorms will be from west central Oklahoma into central
parts of the state.  A few HRRR runs suggest some of the stronger
storms overnight may produce near severe wind gusts, but this
is usually overdone.

As the upper low moves eastward across northern Texas on Wednesday,
surface winds will become more northerly, especially across the
western Oklahoma during the morning. As this occurs, better rain
and thunderstorm chances will shift into south central and central
Oklahoma, especially during the afternoon.  Instability will remain
weak and mainly elevated through Wednesday.  With higher PW values
across south central and southeastern Oklahoma locally heavy rainfall
is certainly possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Rain and thunderstorm chances will mainly be confined to areas east
of Interstate 35 by Wednesday evening.  Gusty north to northwest
winds Wednesday night will continue to advect drier air southward.

Winds on Thursday will remain breezy to gusty, especially during the
morning and early afternoon.  Temperatures are not expected to be
very warm Thursday, but afternoon humidity will get rather low across
far northwestern Oklahoma.

Southerly winds will return by Friday and will increase Saturday as
a fast moving shortwave trough moves across the southern and
central Plains. Humidity will slowly improve through the weekend
but mainly dry conditions are expected. Another upper low/trough
will approach the area around Monday of next week. This will
increase rain and thunderstorm chances along with a risk of severe
weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to drop into MVFR and some IFR
conditions overnight as rain and some thunderstorms become more
widespread. These will linger through the morning hours on
Wednesday before rain shifts east and ceilings rise. Modest east
to northeast winds will shift to the north tomorrow morning and
become quite gusty by late morning. Gusts above 30kts likely by
afternoon across much of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  50  61  47  66 /  90  80  10   0
Hobart OK         47  66  44  68 / 100  60  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  51  62  47  69 /  90  60  10   0
Gage OK           43  71  41  69 /  70  20   0   0
Ponca City OK     50  65  47  67 /  50  60  10   0
Durant OK         58  66  48  70 /  70  80  30   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30