661
FXUS64 KOUN 180757
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
257 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Areas of fog will be seen again early this morning, mainly
confined to locations near and east of I-35. Low-lying locations
could see some brief dense fog across southeast portions of
Oklahoma, from Ada down toward Atoka and Durant.

With plenty of insolation and a return to more predominant southerly
flow, most high temperatures are expected to be 8 to 10 degrees
warmer than those seen yesterday, with many locations reaching
the 90s. With plenty of UV and relatively light wind, the air
quality alert issued yesterday by the department of environmental
quality will continue into early this evening.

Toward the end of the afternoon and into the first half of this
evening, thunderstorms will build south and west through Kansas
along a stalling frontal boundary. A few storms could build into
extreme northern/northwest Oklahoma. Strong wind gusts will be
possible with any storm that manages to make it south of the
Kansas border, but they should dissipate after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Very warm to hot temperatures will continue through Tuesday,
before a frontal boundary and more cloud cover will keep
temperatures closer to average the rest of the week. High
temperatures close to 100 degrees not out of the question Sunday
through Tuesday across far western Oklahoma and adjacent north
Texas. These areas would be west of an oscillating dryline.

As a shortwave trough ejects downstream of a developing western U.S.
longwave trough, scattered thunderstorms will try to develop near
this dryline across northern/western Oklahoma Sunday afternoon and
evening. There will be primarily a damaging hail and wind concern
with any storm that forms. Locations from Buffalo and Woodward,
over toward Alva, Cherokee, Enid, and Medford should be prepared
for severe storms through the evening. There is a chance for the
storms to expand farther south and east Sunday night as low level
jet impinges on a potential cold pool. Damaging winds would be
the concern into central Oklahoma if this were to occur.

After the potential for a minimum in storm chances on Monday, the
previously mentioned longwave trough begins to slowly progress
eastward into the central portion of the country Tuesday through
Thursday. This will help usher in a cold front from the north
late on Tuesday, and at the same time, allowing the dryline
to mix farther east into central Oklahoma. Severe storms appear
likely with the current model trends pointing to areas near and
east of Interstate-35. This will be dependent on how far east the
dryline mixes on Tuesday. All forms of severe weather appear
possible late on Tuesday, at least for the eastern half or so of
Oklahoma. Post frontal showers and maybe a few storms possible on
Wednesday, before main trough axis is progd to shift east over the
region on Thursday. Thursday will need to be another day to watch
with increased shear and plenty of moisture near the retreating
frontal boundary. There is enough disagreement in models on
Thursday to keep confidence somewhat low on exact location of
severe weather potential. The ECM is a little faster and more
amplified with the trough, yielding a more pronounced signal for
severe storms. The GFS keeps most of the convection south and east
of our CWA. Highest PoPs will remain across the southeast half of
Oklahoma.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

VFR conditions to continue.

Light south winds and clear skies expected through the forecast
period. There is some possibility of fog late tonight at DUA, but
chances remain too low to introduce into TAF at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  88  65  89  69 /   0   0  10  20
Hobart OK         92  66  94  69 /   0   0  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  91  68  93  72 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           93  64  96  62 /  10  10  20  20
Ponca City OK     89  63  90  67 /   0  10  10  50
Durant OK         88  66  90  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...30