237
FXUS65 KPSR 012043
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
143 PM MST Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions continue through at least the next week. Above normal
temperatures continue through Saturday with afternoon high
temperatures reaching into the low-to-mid 90s across the lower
deserts. Breezy to locally windy conditions will develop across the
region this weekend as a low pressure system moves through to the
north of us. This low pressure will also allow temperatures to cool
off to near or slightly below normal for the end of the weekend and
beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upon analysis of upper-level water vapor imagery, there is a broad
trough across western CONUS, with the low pressure system associated
with this trough currently situated over Idaho and western Montana.
As this trough moves through the area we are under the influence of
lower heights aloft, which will allow for slightly cooler
temperatures than yesterday. This trough will slowly make its way
into the Plains, putting us on the backside of the trough come
Friday. This will keep lower desert afternoon high temperatures in
the upper 80s to mid 90s through Friday.

Another trough will start to dig into the Pacific NW on Saturday and
then move into the Intermountain West on Sunday and Monday. Since we
will be inbetween two troughs on Saturday, heights aloft will rise
slightly, so expect afternoon high temperatures a couple degrees
warmer than on Friday. Global ensemble members still disagree on the
exact magnitude of the aforementioned trough for this weekend.
However, breezy to locally windy conditions are expected this
weekend as the pressure gradient tightens as this trough moves into
the region. On Saturday wind gusts of 20-30 mph are expected across
southeastern California and southwestern Arizona. Stronger winds are
expected on Sunday with gusts of 25-35 mph across the lower deserts
and 40+ mph in the higher terrain areas. This trough will also lower
heights as it moves through the area allowing afternoon high
temperatures to cool off into the 80s Sunday and Monday. After this
trough exits the region, zonal flow looks to return by mid-week next
week, which will allow for temperatures to steadily climb back above
normal. Dry conditions prevail through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1720Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns are anticipated during the TAF
period under generally clear skies. Winds will continue to exhibit
diurnal tendencies with sustained speeds aob 10 kts, with
occasional gusts in the mid to upper teens during the afternoon
hours. A period of southerly winds is expected through 20-21z
before fully establishing out of the west afterwards.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and warm weather will continue into the weekend. Afternoon high
temperatures will be 3-6 degrees above normal through Saturday. A
weather system moving through the region will cool off temperatures
to near or slightly below normal for the end of the weekend and
start of next week. Light winds, with occasional afternoon
breeziness, is anticipated through Friday. Breezy to locally wind
conditions will develop this weekend. Highest wind gusts are
expected on Sunday where winds may gust as high as 25-35 mph across
the lower deserts and up around 40 mph in the higher terrain.
Minimum relative humidity values will range from 8-20% each day.
Moisture recovery will range from poor to fair each night, or around
25-50%.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Berislavich
AVIATION...Lojero/Whittock
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich/Salerno