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000
FXUS61 KRLX 170505
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
105 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms possible today into tonight, with a
cold front moving through tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 100 AM Wednesday...

Models showing a couple of lines of moisture coming toward the
area today in advance of a cold front. The first one is arriving
now from the west, but the precipitation is falling out of mid
deck, so will be light. The next one arrives in eastern Ohio and
eastern Kentucky around daybreak, pushing eastward through the
area during the day. This could produce some showers and
thunderstorms, but instability is not impressive with effective
layer CAPE values of only 400 to 600.

The more interesting potential arrives with the cold front late
this afternoon into the evening hours. Meso NAM shows effective
layer CAPE in the 1100 to 1300 range in central Ohio with low
level helicity of 200-400. This would allow for large hail and
maybe even tornados. With mid level dry air in place, downbursts
and/or microbursts are also possible. As the cold front pushes
eastward through the area Wednesday night, less energy is
available over Kentucky and eastern West Virginia, so expect to
the storms to gradually weaken.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Tuesday...

The region will remain in the warm sector Thursday, even with an
approaching cold front, high temperatures will be in the upper
70s and lower 80s; 60s and 70s in the mountains. Milder
conditions are expected Thursday afternoon, outside of a few
remnant showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Some evening showers will occur due to cold front
moving through Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Tuesday...

A cold front moves through Friday keeping showers around, as
well as the chance for some thunderstorms. Temperatures look to
be below normal for the weekend. Slight chances remain in the
mountains for some weekend showers. Frost/freeze headlines
could be possible Sunday night/Monday morning with some mid to
upper 30s across parts of northern WV and southeast OH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 AM Wednesday...

VFR conditions can be expected before daybreak. A low level jet
could cause some low level wind shear where location manage to
decouple at the surface.

A line of showers and possibly thunderstorms will then push
across the area today, possibly causing some brief restrictions.
Outside of any showers and thunderstorms, expect VFR conditions.

A cold front will move through Wednesday night. Some
thunderstorms with the cold front could become severe,
especially over southeast Ohio. Some MVFR clouds are possible
behind the cold front Wednesday night, especially over the
mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             WED 04/17/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR is anticipated.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/LTC
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...RPY