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000
FXUS61 KRLX 160213
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1013 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A quasi stationary front will linger across the southern parts
of the area overnight, before returning northward as a warm
front on Tuesday. More storms possible Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1004 PM Monday...

Allowed to expire Severe Thunderstorm Watch for most of WV at
10 PM. Isolated showers or storms are still possible develop
across extreme southern WV, southwest VA and northeast KY
tonight, as a quasi stationary frontal boundary continues to sag
south during the overnight hours.

Also, adjusted hourly temperatures per latest trends.

As of 205 PM Monday...

Key Point:

* Conditional risk of severe storms late this afternoon into
  this evening - large hail and damaging winds the primary
  threats
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch until late this evening for areas
  along and east of I-79/US-119 Corridor.


Baroclinic zone was located north of a line from KUNI to KPKB to
KCKB based on metars and satellite as of 1800Z. EML plume across
the Ohio Valley is nudging eastward, steepening mid-level lapse
rates while keeping a bit of a cap over the portions of the
area. This is evident by the overall lack of cumulus across
southeast Ohio and southern WV with cumulus concentrated along
and just ahead of the aforementioned boundary sagging
southward. This will likely continue to keep coverage widely
scattered and mainly across the eastern half of the CWA through
the afternoon and into the evening where capping is weaker.
Where surface based convection does initiate, expect a damaging
wind threat as the primary hazard along with large hail.

The front will sag to near the I-64 corridor in the 00-02Z time
frame before stalling over the Coal Fields overnight. There may
be a slight uptick of convection during this time frame as the
boundary layer cools slightly with loss of heating. A stratus
layer could develop overnight along and just north of the
front, with some valley fog in the northern mountain valleys.

The front will return northward Tuesday as a warm front well in
advance of the next system. Expect primarily diurnally driven
convection to develop across the area with perhaps better
coverage than this afternoon/evening.

Temperatures overnight look to dip into the 50s with highs
Tuesday dependent on timing of convection but overall similar
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Monday...

Chances for thunderstorms, even some severe, remains for Wednesday
afternoon and evening. There is currently a marginal risk for severe
weather across parts of Ohio, Kentucky and western West Virginia. A
warm front will lift northward Tuesday night into Wednesday, leaving
much of the area in the warm sector for Wednesday.

That said, CAPE profiles look sufficient for storm activity,
particularly SBCAPE and MUCAPE, as temperatures will be in the
lower 70s to upper 80s. Strong to severe thunderstorms are
likely Wednesday and Wednesday night as a result. There also
remains a marginal risk for excessive rainfall across portions
of the forecast area Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Monday...

For Thursday, Cooling off slightly behind a cold front, though
still on the warmer side with temperatures in the 70s across the
lowlands; 60s an low 70s in the mountains. Slight chance for a
shower or isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across the
northeastern mountains.

A secondary cold front arrives Friday to reinforce cooler
temperatures for the weekend, 50s and 60s for most on Saturday
and Sunday. Chances for widespread rain exists Friday into
Saturday as this front moves through.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 730 PM Monday...

With the absence of upper level forcing, and after loosing the
afternoon heating, convection will continue to wane along a
quasi stationary frontal boundary. This front is expected to sag
southward, stalling over southern sections later tonight. This
front lifts north as a warm front on Tuesday, spreading showers
and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours.

Widespread VFR conditions are anticipated for the most part,
except for brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions along showers
and storms.

Can`t rule out additional convection firing up tonight, but
confidence is low in the absence of upper level forcing and
diurnal heating. Expected clearing and weak flow tonight may allow
for IFR dense fog development mainly along the river valleys.
Therefore, coded IFR conditions at EKN and BKW for now.

Convection should return along and near the frontal boundary
Tuesday morning into the evening hours.

Winds will become light and variable this evening, even calm at
some places. Light winds become southerly Tuesday morning under
weak flow aloft.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: It may remain dry and clear tonight into
early Tuesday morning. Confidence on developing IFR dense fog is
low.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  TUE 04/16/24
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    M    L    L    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    M    M    L    L    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    M    L    L    L    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 100 PM Monday...

**Flooding Continues Along the Ohio River Today**

Water from last Thursday`s heavy rain event continues to work
into the mainstem rivers. While flood waters have receded from
much of the area, flooding continues along portions of the Ohio
River. Flooding is currently occurring from Marietta down to
near Point Pleasant, even as far west as Ashland. Additionally,
backwater flooding from the Ohio River on the connecting
tributaries will continue to produce water over some roadways,
even miles away from the Ohio River.

Please visit water.noaa.gov for specific river observations and
forecasts.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...30/LTC
NEAR TERM...30/ARJ
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...ARJ

HYDROLOGY...