219
FXUS61 KRLX 011656
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1256 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend today
into Friday. A cold front brings showers and storms this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1255 PM Wednesday...

Models showing a frontal boundary moving through the area this
afternoon and evening. Due to a lack of moisture however, no
precipitation is expected, only a few clouds. A high pressure
system will provide calm winds over the area tonight. Drier air
in the lower levels today will mix down and cause surface
dewpoints to drop enough such that fog shouldn`t be an issue
for most locations tonight. Light winds and dry weather will
continue on Thursday with plenty of sunshine.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
335 AM Wednesday...

Thursday morning is likely to find a nearly stationary front
draped west to east just north of the area. This front will lift
north as a warm front, Thursday through Friday, ahead of a cold
front approaching from the west. There may be showers and
thunderstorms along and north of the front back in central Ohio
Thursday morning, where the front is already beginning its
northward move. This activity should move northeast, remaining
north of the forecast area, as the northward movement of the
front progresses east.

This leaves the area in very warm, dry air, with plenty of
sunshine on Thursday once any morning fog burns off.

As the cold front and its associated southern stream short wave
trough move into the area Friday, clouds will start to increase
ahead of it Thursday night in the form of cirrus and
stratocumulus, and then any sunshine Friday morning will give
way to lowering and thickening cloudiness, with showers and
thunderstorms becoming a possibility by the end of the day.

The forerunner increase in cloud, and modest dew points in the
lower 60s, likely contribute to modest instability Friday
afternoon, with CAPE less than a KJ/kg. Given modest low to mid
level flow.shear, thunderstorms are not expected to be
especially strong, but they can produce heavy downpours and gusty
winds in the middle Ohio Valley by late in the day.

Deterministic central guidance highs are now in line with the
50th percentile guidance is rather high for daytime highs both
days, and are comfortably below record highs. Thursday night
will be mild, although decoupling could allow lows lower than
central guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 420 AM Tuesday...

A southern stream short wave trough that moves into the area
Friday exits Friday night, but the cold front washes out. With
the air mass actually a bit more moist by Saturday, and an
additional southern stream short wave trough crossing the area,
showers and thunderstorms are likely Friday night through
Saturday, and even into Sunday. The nearly saturated atmosphere
will not be that unstable, but PW values could climb to 1.5
inches or higher, so heavy downpours are a good possibility. The
vegetation and recent dry weather should minimize the potential
for high water.

By later in the day Sunday, the short wave trough exits, giving
way to ridging, lessening shower and thunderstorm coverage
Sunday afternoon, compared with Saturday afternoon, at least
across the middle Ohio Valley. This should also lead to a lull
in the active weather Sunday night into Monday.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms then ramps back up
during the day on Monday, and continues Tuesday, as a warm
front and mid-upper level flat waves cross, out ahead of a
large mid- upper level low over the plains. This could all
culminate in a better chance for strong, heavy thunderstorms on
Wednesday, as the plains mid-upper level low pushes into the
Great Lakes, pushing a strong cold front into the area. Gradient
winds will also increase and become gusty ahead of this front
Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

After a rain-cooled Saturday, perhaps not too unlike Tuesday,
central guidances reflects a slow moderation in temperatures
next week, ahead of the upcoming, potential strong midweek
system. Nights will also cool off a bit, and then warm back up a
bit. Above normal temperatures prevail throughout the period,
but we should remain well shy of record territory.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1255 PM Wednesday...

VFR conditions can generally be expected through the period,
although a few locations could see fog late tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may or may not occur late tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/TRM
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...RPY