Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 250216
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1016 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings dry weather through Monday, with fire
weather concerns likely on Monday. Next system brings rain for
the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1015 PM Sunday...

Adjusted temperatures and dewpoints to better reflect current
observed trends tonight. No other significant changes to the
near term forecast have been made at this time.

As of 510 PM Sunday...

Made a few minor adjustments to dewpoints to align with current
observations. Otherwise, the near term forecast remains on
track this evening.

As of 145 PM Sunday...

Key Points...

* Dry and breezy conditions on Monday will lead to increased
  fire weather concerns across the area.

Sunny skies and gentle breezes will prevail this afternoon under
the influence of high pressure. As the high shifts from the
Great Lakes to the Northeast, a ridge of high pressure will
build to our east as cold air flows south along the east side
of the Appalachians. This will act to tighten the pressure
gradient, and should allow for some cross-barrier flow to
develop tonight as some increasing E-SE`ly winds. Winds look to
be strongest over the higher ridges, and perhaps across some of
the western slopes into the southern coalfields, where sustained
winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 25-35 mph are possible. Winds
will increase some elsewhere, as well, but not to that degree.

Regardless, the downsloping breezes will allow for mixing to
continue, which will keep humidity from recovering overnight.
Some patches of high clouds look to stream over the area
tomorrow, but overall we look to be more sunny than cloudy.
Combined with the continued downsloping SE`ly breezes, most of
the area west of the highest ridges should have no problem
getting well into the 60s Monday afternoon, with some areas
likely at least touching the 70 degree mark.

Forecast soundings across multiple models show a very deep
layer of very dry air above the morning inversion. As we mix out
and start to tap into that dry layer, we can expect
exceptionally low afternoon RH values across the area. MinRH
values of 15-20 percent look to be common across the area
tomorrow afternoon. Even if most of the area likely falls short
of Red Flag Warning criteria on winds, at least a Fire Danger
Statement seems likely for much of the area tomorrow. Will
continue to coordinate with neighbors and forestry partners on
that front. Please see fire wx section below for more details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...

Surface low pressure and upper shortwave lift northeast into the
Great Lakes region Monday night into Tuesday, followed by a second
shortwave that will drag a cold front through the area Tuesday night
into early Wednesday, ending up largely east of the CWA by Wednesday
evening. Models have backed off on rainfall amounts with this system
in latest runs, and although rainfall potential exists area wide, it
may be somewhat spotty in nature. The NAM in particular would
suggest even less potential for a wetting rain across the lowlands.
Higher qpf looks to exist across the higher terrain, where moisture
may linger in vicinity of the slow moving front on Wednesday. There
still exists the potential for a rumble of thunder during the
period, but should overall be generally isolated in nature.

In addition, gusty southeasterly winds are possible particularly
Monday evening/night across the mountainous counties. At this
time, kept area largely beneath advisory levels due to low
confidence, but will need to be monitored.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1152 AM Sunday...

Frontal boundary associated with the system should be just east of
the mountains by late Wednesday night or early Thursday, with upper
trough pushing east through the area amd eventually kicking the
front further east. Mainly dry conditions are expected across the
area in the extended, however, occasional weak waves in the flow may
generate light precipitation at times.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 720 PM Sunday...

VFR is expected to persist through the TAF period, courtesy of
high pressure, while mid to high level clouds pass overhead.

Northeast winds turn to the southeast tonight and then maintain
a southeasterly direction for the remainder of the period. Wind
speeds should strengthen overnight, with gusty conditions
developing along the mountains. Monday remains breezy, with
gusts likely reaching teens for the lowlands and 20-30kts along
the mountains. A few sites could experience a period of LLWS
before gusts mix down to the surface during the day Monday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: If LLWS develops, extent and duration
could vary from current TAFs.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 03/25/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions may occur in any areas of rain Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Poor RH recovery is expected across the area tonight. The
western slopes of the high terrain are likely to only recover
into the 30-45 percent range, with recovery to 40-60 percent for
the Ohio Valley into Southeast Ohio. That sets the stage for
Monday and the very dry and breezy conditions expected across
the area. Indeed, with afternoon temperatures expected to reach
towards 70 degrees across much of the lower elevations, and a
large layer of very dry air not too far aloft, significantly low
RH values are expected across the area Monday afternoon. Most of
the area will likely see at least a few hours of MinRH values
into the 15-20 percent range. Winds will also be breezy across
the entire area, and on the stronger side for the higher
terrain and western slopes. Fortunately, the area with the
stronger winds is generally also an area that got more precip
with the Fri/Fri night system, so that helps matters, though
we`re already seeing fuel moisture values at RAWS stations
dipping into the teens. Across the Mid-Ohio Valley and southeast
Ohio, where less rain was noted, fuel moistures are lower still,
though winds may not be quite as strong there. Thus at a minimum
an area-wide fire danger statement seems on the likely side for
tomorrow, and we will coordinate with neighbors and our forestry
partners on any potential Fire Weather Watch or Red Flag
Warnings that they feel may be needed.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/SL/JLB
NEAR TERM...FK/JLB
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JLB

FIRE WEATHER...


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