792
FXUS61 KRLX 112103
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
503 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler weather for the weekend. Cold front exits east of the
Appalachians this evening. Wet weather returns Monday night
into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 450 PM Saturday...

Modest destabilization following a band of prefrontal showers
and isolated thunderstorms earlier today has allowed SCT strong
thunderstorms to form along a cold front that is rapidly
sweeping through the region. Gusty winds and hail continue to be
the main threats, generally of the sub-severe variety. An
isolated severe storm does remain possible, however, over the
next couple of hours across north central and northeast WV.
Given some weak rotation with a cell or two this afternoon, a
highly isolated and brief spin up cannot entirely be ruled out.
The aforementioned surface cold front quickly shifts east of the
area by 8 PM, ending the threat for any strong to severe
thunderstorms. Have updated temperatures, PoPs, and cloud
cover through the evening to represent the latest trends. The
rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 138 PM Saturday...

Cold front exits east of the Appalachians early this evening, taking
most of the convection with it. Lingering light showers are possible
behind the front, mainly higher elevations through at least
midnight. Behind the front, winds shift from the west northwest
remaining gusty through early evening, but subsiding later
tonight for most locations outside of the mountains. Much drier
airmass filters in behind the front providing mostly clear skies
late tonight through Sunday.

River valley fog will be possible once again overnight tonight
into early Sunday morning. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail
through the end of period.

Slightly below normal temperatures expected tonight, generally in
the upper to mid 40s across the lowlands, ranging into the upper
30s higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 142 PM Saturday...

Monday looks to be mainly dry and warm with high pressure, surface
and aloft in control. There will be the possibility for isolated
showers or storms as the day progresses, and a weak shortwave,
combined with daytime heating affects the area out ahead of the main
system. Chances for showers and storms increase Monday night into
Tuesday as a low in the southern stream forms, and eventually opens
into a wave as it moves across our area. We look to get a period of
decent/soaking rain, but overall, it looks like the axis of greater
moisture/precipitation should remain generally to the south and east
of our area, thus mitigating much in the way of anything other than
localized water issues.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1212 PM Saturday...

Active weather will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as
aforementioned wave moves east of the area. A brief break in the
precipitation is possible around Thursday as high pressure builds
into the area, however, another low in the southern stream is
expected to affect us once again towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 136 PM Saturday...

A cold front crossing the area this afternoon will produce a
wind shift from southwest to west northwest at PKB, HTS and CRW
around 19Z, following with CKB by 22Z and BKW and EKN by 00Z
Sunday. Wind gusts up to 20 knots are possible.

The front brings light to moderate showers capable to produce
MVFR conditions. Brief periods of IFR visibility may occur with
the heavier showers. Coded VCTS as most sites through the
evening hours as thunderstorm confidence runs low. Outside
shower activity, widespread VFR conditions are anticipated at
least through midnight.

Areas of dense fog will be possible along river valleys
overnight tonight through 12Z Sunday, when the sky clears, and
if the winds subside.

Any fog or low stratus will quickly dissipate by 13Z Sunday
morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of visibility and/or ceiling restrictions
overnight with fog/stratus may vary from the forecast.




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
Widespread IFR conditions are not expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ