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000
FXUS64 KSHV 211500
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1000 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

High pressure is slowly building in this morning and clear skies
are prevailing on regional visible satellite. As a result,
temperatures are slowly rebounding from a cooler start in the
40`s and low 50`s. The theme of clearing, and rebounding
temperatures will continue through the afternoon as high
temperatures climb into the mid to upper 60`s. Not entirely ruling
out the chance for a few 70`s just yet but with winds remaining
predominantly northerly through the afternoon, and on the elevated
side for the majority of the diurnal warming period, it may be
difficult to overcome. Especially if the CAA layer is on the
stronger side, and strong enough to offset the the warming period
and clear skies. Winds should decouple some as the sfc gradient
loosens up after sunset.

At this time, no major adjustments are needed to the forecast as
the midnight package remains on track. Only change was to adjust
the hourlies to match latest trends as some sites are running a
degree or two warmer than the advertised forecast.

RK

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Low to a couple of mid 50s this morning, which is actually quite
average for mid to late April; of course this would generally be
under fair skies. However, we are cloudy with some drizzle and
light rain as far north as Idabel and DeQueen last hour. The
water vapor shows the upper decks departing OK/TX skies, but the
low winds backing a little from NE to N is helping to scour out a
little remaining low level moisture. Essentially, the measurable
rainfall is winding down fast with some trace amounts perhaps
looking at radar trends. The drier winds out of OK with 30 dew
points are spreading quickly southward, and will also help to
improve skies slowly this morning, and then vastly so by
lunchtime.

The afternoon will be very nice with sunshine and warmer middle
60s across the area. Meanwhile, the dew points will continue to
fall with northerly winds over much of the area, also setting us
up for a chilly night or two. In fact, a touch of patchy frost may
occur north of I-30 to start the new week. We will see a couple
of mid 30s, but mostly upper 30s across S AR and just down into
the northern most Parishes in LA. Lots of low to mid 40s elsewhere
as the winds will decouple and remain light overnight for good
radiational cooling. The surface high is 1030mb over W KN now and
will drift SE into central AR overnight and early on Monday. The
short term models all agree on still about 1025mb at that time.
We may see a little light NE wind early tomorrow, but a shift
back to E/SE will occur by early afternoon. Sunshine and light
winds will make for highs generally in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

The high pressure will be across the MS River, but still looking
for below average readings in the low to mid 40s east of I-49 and
upper 40s to low 50s to the west. The warming trend ensues soon
afterwards with average readings back in place by Tuesday
afternoon, closing in on 80 degrees once again. From there mid to
late week will see high temps settle in the mid to upper 80s and
lows will be rising through the 50s into the low 60s by midweek
and some upper 60s in TX by Friday.

All in all, the work week will be very nice with light NW flow to
start, and then backing aloft to more of a zonal flow by midweek.
Another cool front will spread across the nation`s heartland that
will spread some clouds our way for midweek with just slight rain
chances north of I-30 until the end of the week with a short wave
impulse and weak surface low moving across the plains. This will
drag a weak frontal boundary down into our area late in the week
with increased rain chances for Friday and Saturday. Seems pretty
much lower impact event by recent comparison with half inch to
some one inch amounts for our I-30 corridor seeing the most on the
WPC day 6 outlook. The SPC already has a 15% hatching over
McCurtain County on their day 6 and it follows a marginal risk
will affect our I-30 corridor at that time. No cooler air mass
arriving will mean will we keep southerly winds and warmer than
average temperatures through the end of the month. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

For the 21/12Z TAF period, the last bit of convection has finally
exited our airspace this morning. However, lower VFR cigs persist
along with some mid-level altocu which should linger through much
of the day before scattering out later this afternoon. Mostly SKC
will eventually overspread our entire airspace by around 22/00Z
as sfc high pressure builds in from the NW. This will allow breezy
N/NE winds between 10-15 kts today to gradually diminish to near
5 kts or less by 22/00Z.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  43  71  49 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  65  42  69  44 /  20   0   0   0
DEQ  65  36  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  66  42  70  49 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  65  39  70  44 /  10   0   0   0
TYR  65  44  70  52 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  66  43  70  50 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  67  44  72  48 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19