473
FXUS64 KSHV 282052
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
352 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Parameters are starting to come together for strong to severe
storms this afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. So far
today we have been relatively quiet, as outflow boundaries from
convection west of the region may have stabilized our area.
However, we have started to see some popcorn convection develop
across the area with daytime heating. Just west of us, very strong
to severe storms have developed between Temple and Mexia Texas
along a remnant boundary. Short-term progs have these storms
holding together and moving northeastward into the western half of
the region over the next couple of hours. The Storm Prediction
Center has issued Tornado Watch 158 for all of our East Texas
counties along and south of Interstate 20 through 9 pm to account
for these storms. Can`t rule out additional watches down stream as
convection pushes eastward into our Louisiana zones after 9 pm.
Again, all modes of severe will be in play, including flash
flooding.

The convection is expected to push through the area overnight and
should be out of our warning area near lunch time Monday just
ahead of a cool front. Can`t rule out some additional convection
early Monday afternoon along that front, followed by quiet
conditions. Not expecting a huge change in temperatures behind the
front, but northerly winds should bring in a slightly cooler and
drier airmass.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Quiet conditions will be short-lived as rain chances are expected
to return by Tuesday afternoon. Zonal flow will become established
over the region Tuesday, with several short-wave disturbances
expected to move through the flow. The upper flow will transition
to more southwesterly by mid-week, with rain chances continuing,
as disturbances continue to move across the flow over the region.
Eventually, another long-wave trough will shift out of the Rockies
into the Plains, eventually dragging another cold front into the
region on Friday. This front should clear the precip out of the
region for next weekend, but not before bringing us more
convection. Can`t rule out additional severe weather during the
upcoming week of unsettled weather, along with excessive rainfall
and additional hydro issues on area waterways. Seasonal temps
look to return by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Very sloppy TAFs are anticipated over the next 24 hours, as a
strong line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move
through the region. These storms will be capable of both very
heavy rain, and severe weather into tomorrow morning. Expect
reduced CIGS and VIS at all terminals over the next 24-hours, with
winds potentially being variable due to their convective nature.

/44/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  82  65  85 /  90  40  10  20
MLU  67  76  63  84 /  70  80  20  20
DEQ  60  81  58  83 /  90  10   0  10
TXK  65  82  62  84 / 100  20   0  10
ELD  63  78  60  85 /  90  70  10  10
TYR  64  83  64  84 /  90  10   0  20
GGG  65  83  63  84 /  90  10   0  20
LFK  66  85  65  85 /  90  30  10  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Monday evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Flood Watch through Monday evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Flood Watch through Monday evening for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through Monday evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...44