National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KSHV 220528
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1228 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

No updates are required to the afternoon forecast package at this
time. Temperatures are cooling into the upper 50s as of the 03Z
hour with dewpoints in the low to mid 40s, with mostly clear skies
allowing a full night of radiational cooling to lows in the upper
30s north to middle 40s south.

/26/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Following a busy first half of the weekend, Sunday has been
nothing short of beautiful across the Four State as temperatures
have rebounded into the mid to upper 60`s and clear skies have
prevailed with high pressure influencing the FA. Clear skies will
carry over into tonight, with winds decoupling as the tight
pressure gradient associated with the arriving sfc ridge loosens
this evening. As a result, another cooler night is expected with
lows ranging from the upper 30`s across the north, to low to mid
40`s elsewhere.

By Monday, high pressure will sit directly overhead, continuing
the theme of clear skies and calm winds. Given the dry airmass
behind the frontal passage to end the week, and calm winds,
elected to trend on the high side of the guidance for MaxT`s
Monday afternoon. This was about a 1-3 deg F increase from the NBM
guidance. As a result, look for highs in the low to mid 70`s just
about areawide.

RK

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Pattern stays the same through mid week as the sfc ridge
influence starts to thin out by Wednesday evening, supporting some
low confidence rain chances across the NW zones. Aloft, ridging
will continue to work east across the Central Plains as upper
forcing begins to enter the Four Corners.

Typically when discussing synoptic patterns this far in advance,
there tends to be some disagreement amongst the guidance, and
various ensemble products. Suprisingly, the signal for persistent
upper level ascent into the Central Plains through the end of the
upcoming weekend remains consistent and has been advertised well
to this point. How that influences the Four State is still to be
determined, as finer details this far out are harder to nail down.
However, it does point towards the return of widespread rain
chances by the end of the week as forcing gets closer to the
region.

Temperature wise, given the influence of the sfc ridge and dry
pattern locally through the first half of the period, along with a
return to southerly winds given the eastward motion of the high
pressure, a gradual warming trend looks to be in cards. This will
be noticeable as we slowly climb through the 80`s to near 90 deg
F by the end of the period on Saturday. Overnight lows look to
follow a similar trend as they climb through the 60`s to near 70
deg F.

RK

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

For the 22/06Z TAF period, VFR conditions will prevail as mostly
SKC dominates under the influence of sfc high pressure. Light and
variable winds overnight will trend more E/SE near 5 kts or less
during the day on Monday.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  50  78  60 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  70  44  76  55 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  68  45  76  56 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  71  49  77  59 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  69  44  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  73  51  76  60 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  72  50  77  59 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  73  48  79  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...19