821
FXUS64 KSJT 111851
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
151 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Early this morning, skies were mostly cloudy with temperatures in
the mid 60s.  A stationary front was more or less washed out near
the Rio Grande, with easterly winds carrying gulf moisture all the
way into west Texas. At the upper levels, a shortwave ridge was over
Texas, while a trough was moving through the southwestern US. This
upper-level trough will approach Texas this morning and eject
multiple mid-level impulses over the region through the day.
Models show elevated instability of 500-1500 J/kg above the
inversion. As mid-level moisture increases with the developing
southwest flow aloft, chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms will increase throughout the day. Most of these
storms are not expected to be severe, but a few could produce some
large hail where steeper midlevel lapse rates occur. Cloud cover
should help to hold temperatures in the mid to upper 70s this
afternoon. Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms are
expected overnight as additional impulses pass over the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Expect a mainly dry and warmer forecast for early this week as
upper 500 MB heights increase and our area is in the surface warm
sector. Highs will be in the 80s to lower 90s Monday and Tuesday.
The next upper level disturbance is due in by middle of this week
and at the surface will see a dryline moving into our area by
late Wednesday afternoon and a weak cool front/dryline
intersection near the Northern Edwards Plateau by Thursday
morning. Also, moderate/strong instability will be over much of
the area with some vertical wind shear. As a result, expect a few
rounds of scattered to numerous thunderstorms Wednesday evening
through Thursday. The month of May is the peak of severe weather
season, so can not rule out a few severe storms. Also, northern
and eastern areas are in a slight risk of excessive rainfall 12Z
Wednesday through 12Z Thursday. Going with mainly medium chances
of rain. Look for dry and warmer weather Friday and next Saturday,
with highs in the mid to upper 90s possible Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible later this
afternoon and evening mainly across the western half of the area.
Confidence was not high enough to place a mention of thunder at
any of the terminals but will monitor radar trends the rest of the
afternoon and amend as necessary. A better chance of more
widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur on Sunday morning
as an upper level disturbance moves across the region. Otherwise,
ceilings will lower back down to MVFR/IFR levels overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     62  77  61  84 /  50  90  20   0
San Angelo  64  85  61  90 /  50  60  10   0
Junction    66  86  65  93 /  50  50  10  10
Brownwood   64  76  64  85 /  50  90  30  10
Sweetwater  62  80  60  85 /  50  80   0   0
Ozona       65  85  61  89 /  40  30  10   0
Brady       65  78  65  85 /  50  80  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...42