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000
FXUS62 KTAE 130111
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
911 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph will continue this afternoon into early
evening. High pressure over deep east Texas will translate into the
northern Gulf by late Saturday. The pressure gradient weakens as the
high approaches with northwesterly winds not as strong as days past
and expecting 10-15 mph. Sunshine will be plentiful so get out and
enjoy the day! Based on latest guidance, did lower temperatures
tonight slightly with readings cool in the mid 40s to around 50
degrees and raised highs slightly with readings close to 80
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Mostly clear and sunny conditions are expected throughout the short
term period as a longwave ridge prevalent over the Great Plains
moves in. Low temperatures in the mid to low 50s are expected with
mid to upper 50s along the coastline. Dewpoint temperatures will
increase to the mid to low 50s on Sunday morning as a patch of
moisture is brought in from the northwest. High temperatures in the
upper 70s to low 80s are expected for the afternoon with winds
shifting from westerly and light to southerly at 5-10 kts. For
Monday, low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s are expected with
winds shifting back to westerly. For Monday afternoon, high
temperatures in the mid to low 80s are expected with southerly winds
at 5-10 kts.&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Surface high pressure will continue settling in
off the southeastern Atlantic coastline clocking surface winds out
of the south-southeast. This will serve to push more moisture
inland, bringing somewhat humid conditions back into the forecast
near the end of the week. With high pressure and southerly flow
dominating, a warming trend is on tap with a gradual increase to the
upper 80s by the end of the work week, perhaps breaking into the low
90s in some of our FL counties on Thursday. Low temperatures will
also see a warming trend, kicking off Tuesday morning in the mid to
upper 50s with lows remaining in the mid 60s for the remainder of
the long term. Winds will also be calm each night as the boundary
layer decouples, resulting in somewhat muggy conditions during the
overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Surface high pressure will continue settling in
off the southeastern Atlantic coastline clocking surface winds out
of the south-southeast. This will serve to push more moisture
inland, bringing somewhat humid conditions back into the forecast
near the end of the week. With high pressure and southerly flow
dominating, a warming trend is on tap with a gradual increase to the
upper 80s by the end of the work week, perhaps breaking into the low
90s in some of our FL counties on Thursday. Low temperatures will
also see a warming trend, kicking off Tuesday morning in the mid to
upper 50s with lows remaining in the mid 60s for the remainder of
the long term. Winds will also be calm each night as the boundary
layer decouples, resulting in somewhat muggy conditions during the
overnight hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 729 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Mostly SKC will make for continued VFR conds this TAF period. Breezy
NW winds should slacken over the next couple hrs, then turn more
northerly overnight into tmrw. Forecast sustained winds mid-
morning thru aftn are AOB 10 kts with an apparent seabreeze
inducing a SW component at ECP around 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 152 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Moderate breezes out of the north will persist through
tomorrow before becoming light and variable as high pressure builds
in over our waters. Additionally, wave heights will gradually
decrease from 3 to 5 feet tonight to around 1 to 2 feet by late
tomorrow evening. Pleasant boating conditions will persist for
the next few days with calm weather expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 152 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Breezy conditions will continue this afternoon then slacken into the
weekend. Transport winds will remain elevated enough to cause high
dispersions Saturday through much of the area away from the coast.
Overall, high pressure will move into the southeast US this weekend
with dry conditions. Good mixing conditions will lead to afternoon
humidity values of 25-35% Saturday afternoon then slightly higher
readings Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 729 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Late afternoon update: An Areal Flood Warning is in effect for
the Capitola/Chaires area east to NE of Tallahassee near I-10
towards the Jefferson County border until Saturday afternoon. Leon
County reported deep standing water hazardous to motorists in the
affected area. Conditions will be reassessed tomorrow morning. On
the riverine front, Ochlockonee Havana is now forecast to reach
minor flood stage within 48 hrs, so a Flood Warning was hoisted
for the basin.

Flood Warnings continue at Concord, Thomasville, Lamont,
Valdosta Skipper Bridge, St Marks Newport, Quitman, and Spring Creek
Iron City. This morning, a new Flood Warning was issued for the
Sopchoppy River in Wakulla county.

Mainstem and smaller rivers/creeks continue to rise after Thursday
morning`s torrential rain event. As a result, a period of minor to
moderate riverine flooding is expected to continue through the
weekend and into next week. The axis of heaviest rainfall was
generally aligned from near Lake Seminole eastward along the FL/GA
line to the eastern portion of our area, though some extremely heavy
amounts of 8-10 inches were reported near Tallahassee and
northeastward through Valdosta, some of this rain occurring in a 3-5
hour period.

This rainfall distribution will affect the Apalachicola,
Ochlockonee, Withlacoochee, Suwannee, and Aucilla Rivers the most.
In fact, given that the entire Aucilla River basin received rainfall
in the 7-9 inch range, it is possible that high end moderate
flooding occurs, and could approach a long standing record at
Lamont.

For the Apalachicola, local inflows into Lake Seminole will lead to
increased releases with Blountstown getting into minor flood early
this morning.

Along the Ochlockonee River, steady rises are continuing throughout
the basin. Routed flows progressing downstream will lead to mostly
minor flooding, though moderate flooding is expected at Concord,
affecting CR-12 in Leon County.

For the Withlacoochee River, rises continue steadily at Valdosta and
local runoff is resulting in rises are all the way through Pinetta.
Minor flooding is expected throughout this basin, though it is
possible that Pinetta could reach the moderate flood level early
next week.

For the Suwannee, this will take a considerable amount of time for
water to process through the system, and there is always the
possibility of water loss downward into the Floridan Aquifer.
However, with the Withlacoochee, Alapaha and Upper Suwannee
components all getting hit with heavy rainfall, it would not be
surprising to see minor riverine flooding at most forecast points on
the mainstem Suwannee from Ellaville southward through Wilcox in the
coming days. Moderate flooding is not expected.

With no additional rainfall anticipated for the next several days,
this event will turn into monitoring routed flows through the river
system into next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  49  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   75  52  78  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        73  46  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        73  46  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      75  48  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    75  49  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  72  54  74  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Saturday for
     FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Bignault
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Godsey/IG3