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000
FXUS63 KTOP 240521
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1221 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Many chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend
  with severe weather potential during several of them

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Elevated shower and thunderstorm activity has shifted east as the
upper wave and associated weak cold front moved east and south
respectively. Benign conditions are expected for the rest of the day
into early Wednesday with modified surface high pressure nosing in.
Northwest flow aloft under easterly surface winds bring small
chances for more high based showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night via mid-level isentropic
lift.

Coverage of precipitation should increase Thursday into Thursday
night as low levels saturate on south to southeast low level flow
under a moderate elevated mixed layer as upper ridging exits. Cloud
cover may be more scattered early in the day so highs in the 60s may
still be reachable and NBM temps are slightly cooler than guidance
means. Deep moist convection is likely to form well to the west and
southwest late in the day Thursday but the depth of the EML may be
enough to keep much severe activity in check this far east.
Precipitation may persist into at least Friday morning as an upper
trough moves into western Nebraska then northeast into the upper
Mississippi Valley into Friday night. A dryline/Pacific front gets
dragged through eastern Kansas through the day Friday though height
falls are limited this far south and convergence along the dryline
is not impressive. NBM PoPs look a bit aggressive especially for the
afternoon. The main impact from this system could end up being
synoptic winds with deep southwest flow developing in the dry air
and some guidance suggesting Warning-level winds in deep mixing.
CAPE and shear will be supportive of severe storms Thursday night
into late Friday if CIN can be overcome.

Moisture doesn`t stray far Saturday as the next upper wave
approaches. Instability will ramp up again during the day with
moisture advection likely leading to at least scattered showers and
storms with afternoon and evening CAPE again supporting severe
potential. Unidirectional flow could give rise to some training
storms with precipitable water values around 1.5 inches for some
local heavy rain potential Saturday night into Sunday. Precipitation
chances back off into the late weekend though a weaker trailing
upper wave suggests small chances even Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR at terminals as high clouds are expected to increase
overnight, accompanied by a 12-15 kft mid level cloud deck
developing aft 14Z. Light north winds gradually veer to the east
below 10 kts through the period. As next system arrives, may
see a <10 kft stratus deck lift northeastward at the end of
forecast period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Prieto