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000
FXUS64 KTSA 171605
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1105 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Low clouds and patchy fog had developed this morning generally
along and south of a warm front currently near the I-40 corridor.
This front will lift north through the day as a sfc low deepens
over SE CO/ SW KS. By mid to late afternoon, the front is
projected to span from N-Central OK east-southeast into W-Central
AR. Some CAMs have suggested an isolated shower or storm may
develop this afternoon or early evening near this boundary/ the
terrain in W-Central AR. However, opted to keep PoPs below
mentionable values for now due to limited potential and
expectation for limited coverage (if any). Otherwise, low clouds
will continue to erode this morning with some high clouds
persisting especially across the southern half of the CWA. High
temps look on track, climbing well into the 80s... perhaps
approaching 90 in some spots along/ west of Hwy 75. Winds will be
much lighter today, generally 5-15 mph with a few gusts to near
20 mph possible this afternoon, primarily along/ west of Hwy 75
where pressure gradients will be tighter. Low storm chances return
this evening near the OK-KS border.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

An isolated thunderstorm or two may develop near the
Kansas/Oklahoma border this evening, but the better chances will
remain to the north. If a storm does develop, it may become severe
with large hail being the main threat. Otherwise it will be a
breezy and mild night, with overnight lows mainly in the 65-70
degree range.

A strong cold front will sweep southeast across the area Thursday.
Warm and humid conditions will continue ahead of the front, with
gusty north winds and falling afternoon temperatures in its wake
across northeast Oklahoma Thursday afternoon. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front, with
some of the storms possibly becoming severe. Overall, have
lowered the NBM pops in northeast Oklahoma Thursday afternoon
where they seem much too high given a relatively early frontal
passage.

Showers and storms will exit the area later Thursday evening, with
much cooler temperatures expected Friday through the weekend. An
upper wave is expected to result in showers and a few
thunderstorms from late Friday through early Sunday, with
southern parts of the forecast area being the most favored
locations for rainfall.

After a dry start to next week Monday, unsettled weather looks to
return towards the middle of the week. Model discrepancies are
large by that time, so stuck close to the NBM solution for now
beyond Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Patchy fog will reduce visibility for a few hours this morning
at KMLC and KFSM with MVFR ceilings possibly lingering until `
late morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for much
of the remainder of the period with the potential for MVFR
ceilings building back into the region late in the period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  70  82  48 /  10  10  30  10
FSM   88  66  86  55 /  10  10  50  40
MLC   87  69  84  52 /  10  10  40  30
BVO   87  66  79  45 /  10  20  40   0
FYV   85  65  84  48 /   0   0  40  30
BYV   86  65  85  47 /   0   0  50  30
MKO   86  67  85  49 /  10   0  50  20
MIO   85  68  81  45 /   0  20  50  10
F10   87  68  85  49 /  10   0  40  20
HHW   82  67  83  55 /   0  10  30  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...10