321
FXUS62 KTAE 290522
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
122 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The main update this evening was to nudge overnight wind speeds
over the northeast Gulf enough to warrant a Small Craft Advisory
until about sunrise. The rest of the forecast is in good shape.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Surface high pressure off the Carolinas keeps southeasterly breezes
in the forecast through at least Monday. Moisture in the lower
levels is forecast to increase enough to possibly get a shower or
two going Monday afternoon. Some of the hi-res guidance is
suggesting the best opportunity for that being in the western
Florida Panhandle into southeastern Alabama. These trends will be
monitored, but a quick look at forecast soundings show enough
moisture below H7 for a 10 to 20 percent chance for the areas
mentioned earlier.

Temperatures tonight will be a bit cooler than the past couple of
nights, generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s with the middle to
upper 60s along the immediate coast. Forecast highs are expected to
reach into the middle 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A shortwave vorticity maxima across the mid levels that has
detached from the main jet stream is expected to propagate
eastward through northern Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia Monday
night through Tuesday night. This will bring the weeks only rain
chances to portions of the region across SE Alabama, SW Georgia,
and the Florida Panhandle. PoPs have slightly increased once again
from yesterday to now 30-35% across the aforementioned areas.
This is likely due to the increased confidence of the event, along
with slightly higher PWATs forecast in the 1.2 inch range. These
PWATS will allow for more rainfall to reach the surface than
previously forecast/anticipated. Showers will still remain
isolated in nature, and QPF will generally remain around 0.25
inches or less.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The forecast area will generally return to dry conditions in the
wake of the mid level disturbance that is expected to exit the
region prior to Wednesday morning. In the shortwaves wake, mid and
upper level ridging is expected to build back over the southeast.
The upper level ridge looks to remain in place over the region
through the end of the work week before an upper level trough digs
equatorward through the middle Mississippi valley, which will help
stream moisture back into the area. Although the trough is
expected to lift to the northeast, which will keep much of the
forcing for ascent well north of the region, the excess moisture
will help lead to some isolated showers and thunderstorms
developing late Friday. Looking into next weekend, another
shortwave impulse in the southern stream looks to exit northern
Mexico and Texas, which could lead to some scattered thunderstorms
both Saturday and Sunday next week. Overall, as the upper level
ridge builds over the southeast, temperatures will run much above
normal, with highs climbing into the low 90s, and lows dipping
into the low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.
Southeasterly to southerly winds will increase somewhat by late
morning with gusts around 15 knots possible until around sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 941 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Have nudged up overnight wind speeds across the northeast Gulf
just enough to warrant a Small Craft Advisory. One last nocturnal
surge of E/SE wind will develop over the next couple hours and
expand overnight across the northeast Gulf. It will then ease
around sunrise.

From CWF synopsis...Another surge of strong east to southeast
breezes is expected during from late this evening through early
Monday morning. Starting Monday morning, pressure gradients will
gradually relax. A small bubble of high pressure will develop over
the northeast and eastern Gulf on Tuesday afternoon, then persist
through Friday. This will bring mainly light and gentle breezes
for the second half of this week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Light to moderate southeasterly winds continue Monday as moisture
levels tick up the next couple of days. There may be enough moisture
to squeeze out a shower or two, mainly over the western Florida
Panhandle and southeastern Alabama Monday afternoon. Otherwise, dry
conditions are expected to continue with widespread wetting rains
not anticipated through at least the middle of the week. Locally
high dispersions remain a concern for across southeastern Alabama.
When coupled with the recent dry spell, this could lead to slightly
elevated fire weather conditions Monday. Dispersions are forecast to
remain high for portions of the region Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 941 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Minor flooding continues along much of the Lower Suwannee River,
though the river is falling in a characteristically slow fashion.
At Wilcox, the river recently fell just below flood stage, so was
able to cancel the Flood Warning there. The Flood Warning
continues at Rock Bluff, Branford, and Manatee Springs. Manatee
Springs is forecast to be the last river forecast point to fall
below flood stage on Thursday morning.

No new or additional flooding is expected for the next 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   85  63  87  65 /   0   0  20   0
Panama City   81  66  81  67 /   0  10  30   0
Dothan        84  63  85  65 /  10  10  40   0
Albany        85  63  86  64 /  10   0  30  10
Valdosta      86  63  88  65 /   0   0  20  10
Cross City    86  62  86  62 /   0   0  10   0
Apalachicola  76  67  78  67 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for
     GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Reese
SHORT TERM...Bunker
LONG TERM....Bunker
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Haner