000
ACUS02 KWNS 111704
SWODY2
SPC AC 111702

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN OREGON...IDAHO...AND NORTHERN NEVADA...

...SUMMARY...
A few marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible over
northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, and western Idaho during the late
afternoon to early evening Friday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper ridging will shift into the Plains as a large upper trough
gradually shifts east across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast,
resulting in stable offshore flow. To the west of the upper ridge, a
deep upper low will drop south just off the West Coast, with a belt
of moderate mid to high level winds from CA into OR/WA/ID.

At the surface, a trough will develop during the afternoon from near
the OR/ID/NV border into MT, with increasing southerly winds.
Midlevel temperatures even well east of the upper low will remain
cool, with -18 C at 500 mb common across the region. As such,
heating along with increasing midlevel moisture within the southwest
flow regime will likely result in scattered storms from northern NV
into eastern OR and across southern ID after about 21Z.

Forecast soundings during this time reveal over 500 J/kg MUCAPE
along with a deeply mixed boundary layer. Given the 40+ kt effective
shear especially over northern areas, this should support a few
cells or bows capable of locally strong winds and hail nearing
severe criteria.

..Jewell.. 04/11/2024

$$