000
ACUS11 KWNS 161605
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161604
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-161830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0458
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Areas affected...central and northeast MO into southeast IA and far
west-central IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 161604Z - 161830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated hail risk may persist for a couple of hours
across central Missouri. With time, severe potential is expected to
increase from northeast Missouri into southeast Iowa. A watch will
likely be needed in the next few hours, but timing is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Elevated convection developing across central Missouri
may initially pose a marginally severe hail risk over the next 1-2
hours. Moderate to strong MLCINH is still apparent from central MO
into southeast IA late this morning, stronger heating is underway
amid broken cloudiness. Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid
70s F amid low 60s F dewpoints, resulting in modest destabilization.
With continued heating and eastward progression of large-scale
ascent impinging on the area by early afternoon, capping should
sufficiently erode such that severe potential will gradually
increase over the next few hours. Quite a bit of uncertainty still
exists in the exact evolution of storms given areas of ongoing
convection and cloud cover. Additionally, more than one round of
storms appears possible for parts of the region. Altogether, this is
resulting in uncertainty in timing of watch issuance. Trends will
continue to be monitored for watch issuance within the next few
hours.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 04/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   38239256 38559261 39409252 41329215 41339161 41139124
            40619112 39819118 38689150 38259165 38039201 38039233
            38119243 38239256