000
ACUS11 KWNS 192030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192029
SCZ000-GAZ000-192230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0495
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Areas affected...North Central into East Central Georgia to Southern
South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 192029Z - 192230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms expected to
develop through this afternoon. Marginally severe hail and gusts up
to 50 to 60 mph expected with the strongest thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations indicate weak confluence
from west central South Carolina through north central Georgia.
Recent visible satellite imagery has shown an increase in cumulus
coverage along this boundary and thunderstorm initiation south of
Athens. Some agitated cumulus has also developed along a sea breeze
near the southern South Carolina coastline.

Surface buoyancy across east central Georgia has slowly increased
late this afternoon with sufficient heating. Moderate MLCAPE around
1500 J/kg is present along with effective shear magnitudes near
30-35 kt. Given the aforementioned environment, some storm
organization will be possible over the next 1-2 hours with a threat
of hail up to 1 inch in diameter. In addition, low level lapse
rates/downdraft CAPE near 1000 J/kg will support damaging wind gust
potential with any more persistent cores that manage to develop.
However, given the weakly forced environment, severe storm coverage
is expected to remain fairly limited.

..Barnes/Moore/Smith.. 04/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON   32588395 33098448 33628450 34018387 34288316 34318188
            33998069 33518008 32847974 32737984 32658002 32548019
            32478027 32468043 32338046 32248052 32208057 32178066
            32158070 32158070 32368232 32588395