218
FXUS62 KTBW 291732
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
132 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A quiet morning across the region with Atlantic high pressure in
full control. Hi-res guidance continues to suggest some potential
for a few showers developing by late evening mostly in southwest
FL, though have some low PoPs in the 15-20% range mainly south of
Tampa Bay along/near the I-75 corridor as any activity is
expected to be isolated in coverage. If any precipitation
activity does develop, thunder chances appear too low to add to
the forecast as instability values continue to look weak.
Otherwise, highs for the afternoon will generally be in the mid to
upper 80s with no changes needed to the ongoing forecast at this
time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Outlook for the upcoming week remains similar to previous
forecasts, with E U.S. high pressure responsible for breezy
conditions of late weakening and shifting SE into the W Atlantic
through mid week ahead of a shortwave disturbance moving across
the E U.S., then returning over the latter half of the week into
the weekend before another disturbance moves across the E U.S.
late weekend into early next week potentially displacing it E into
the Atlantic.

Lighter E-SE winds expected today in response to the weakening
gradient, with a bit more of a sea breeze component likely to
develop and penetrate inland this afternoon and evening compared
to recent days. While PoPs are expected to remain around 20
percent or less, a few evening-early overnight showers once again
appear possible as the E-SE flow intersects the boundary. While
global and MOS guidance are not particularly enthused regarding
this potential, hi-res guidance continues to key on this
possibility, which seems prudent given their performance the past
few days reflecting the evening showers that have developed
across parts of the area. While today`s E-SE flow may not
encourage as much convergence along the sea breeze boundary, the
expected penetration of the boundary further inland due to the
weakened gradient/E flow will likely allow any showers that do
develop to affect more areas ashore compared to Sunday, favoring
the I-75 corridor from around the Nature Coast southward through
SWFL, with the highest chances from around the Tampa Bay area
through SWFL. Despite the showers, amounts will likely remain
below a tenth of an inch for most areas, with a few locally
higher amounts possible.

Global/MOS guidance come aboard Tue-Wed regarding potential rain
chances as a shortwave pushes across the E U.S., signaling an
uptick in PoPs into the 15-30 percent range over interior areas,
with highest chances south. Despite favoring the interior, the
presence of the sea breeze combined with the predominantly E-SE
flow expected to remain in place during this time will still
support lower PoPs toward coastal areas as showers will be
propagating westward across the area. While confidence leaves a
little to be desired at this juncture, it appears that enough
instability will be present to support at least a few rumbles of
thunder, particularly in conjunction with the highest PoPs.

Ridging aloft-surface builds back over the area Thu into the
weekend which will squelch rain chances to an extent, however
guidance still indicates 10-20 PoPs for much of the area favoring
the typical diurnal cycle of maximized chances during the aftn-eve
hours before diminishing, with greatest potential inland although
the sea breeze will maintain lower chances closer to the coast.
Another shortwave and attendant surface low pressure system
propagating eastward across the E U.S. late weekend-early next
week will perhaps lead to an uptick in moisture and associated
rain chances locally, however at this time enough uncertainty
remains to discourage adjusting the forecast away from the
current expectation of conditions not changing much from the late
week-early weekend period.

Temps through the period are expected to remain on the warmer side
of things compared to normal, despite the Tue-Wed rain chances and
potentially increased associated cloud cover. Early week highs in
the upper 80s to around 90 are expected, before rising into the
upper 80s to lower 90s from around mid week onward. Coastal areas
under the influence of the sea breeze can expect slightly cooler
highs generally in the mid 80s. Overnight and early morning lows
in the 60s are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Isolated showers may develop by this evening around southwest FL
coastal terminals along the sea breeze and while this activity
should be light if it develop, brief restrictions could occur if
any heavier pockets of showers develop. As a result, VCSH has
been added to southwest FL terminals from roughly 00Z-03Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are in place throughout the TAF period
with winds turning southerly tonight and eventually onshore into
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

High pressure over the waters will continue E-SE winds through the
week with winds turning onshore during the afternoon with the sea
breeze. Cautionary-level winds continue this morning for some
central waters before diminishing this afternoon as the gradient
continues to relax, otherwise no headlines expected through the
remainder of the period. Showers and perhaps a storm will be
possible near the coast through mid week during the evening into
early overnight hours before diminishing.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Warm and dry high pressure continues over the region with
easterly flow and a few hours of low RH values along with
high dispersions for some areas today before improving through mid
week. Fire weather risk remains somewhat elevated for today,
however, fuels are expected to remain moist enough to preclude
additional concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  69  86  70 /   0  10  10   0
FMY  87  67  87  69 /  10  20  20  10
GIF  87  65  87  67 /   0  10  20  10
SRQ  87  67  85  68 /   0  10  10   0
BKV  88  62  87  62 /   0  10  10   0
SPG  84  72  84  73 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close