Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --890 FXUS62 KTBW 211653 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1253 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 .DISCUSSION...-- Changed Discussion --The pattern aloft this afternoon features high pressure centered over Mexico and and troughing to our east, with flow over the region out of the north-northeast. At the surface, high pressure over the mid-Atlantic region ridges down across Florida. For the rest of the day, expect a few showers and storms to continue over the interior, but hot and dry conditions will prevail otherwise. The rest of the week looks to be rather uneventful as ridging builds over the region aloft and increasing subsidence leads to lower rain chances. Only southwest Florida and the interior could see a shower or too, but rainfall amounts are forecast to be on the low side. Conditions otherwise will remain hot, with high temperatures topping out in the mid to upper 90s. The upper ridge holds through the weekend and even into next week, though it does flatten some as a shortwave moves by to the north. Surface high pressure shifts eastward some, with a low-level southerly flow leading to an increase in moisture and slightly higher rain chances.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --(18Z TAFS) VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --Northeast to east winds today become east and then southeast through the week, with a turn onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon. No headlines are expected.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .FIRE WEATHER...-- Changed Discussion --No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...-- Changed Discussion --TPA 75 93 75 93 / 10 10 0 10 FMY 73 94 73 94 / 10 30 10 20 GIF 71 93 71 95 / 10 10 0 10 SRQ 73 93 73 93 / 0 10 0 10 BKV 68 95 68 95 / 10 10 0 10 SPG 78 93 78 92 / 0 10 0 10-- End Changed Discussion --&& Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ 05/Carlisle