Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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207 FXUS62 KTBW 070751 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 351 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 In the upper levels, broad high pressure will build into the central Gulf of Mexico today and shift east across Florida Wednesday and Thursday. At the surface, Atlantic high pressure will continue to ridge across the central Florida Peninsula, with light southerly/southeasterly flow turning onshore near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze. Enough moisture will be present for some isolated to scattered sea breeze showers and storms this afternoon, mainly over the interior, then drier air will fill in through the middle of the week. With the ridging aloft, some patchy fog will be possible Wednesday morning, mainly over the Nature Coast. Otherwise, the main forecast concern will be building temperatures under the stacked ridging, with high temperatures forecast to top out in the mid to upper 90s over the interior Wednesday through Friday. Friday through Monday, a series of shortwaves will swing through the Great Lakes and eastern US, bringing a weak frontal boundary into Florida and washing out Friday night and Saturday. A secondary front will then follow up on Sunday night and Monday. Increasing moisture ahead of and along these frontal boundaries will result in increased rain chances Friday through early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 A few showers or storms are expected to develop by around 19-20z this afternoon along sea breeze boundaries, with the highest chances over the interior around KLAL and over southwest Florida around KRSW, KFMY, and KPGD. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to hold through the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 Atlantic high pressure will ridge across Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, with generally south and southeast winds, turning onshore near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze. Winds will remain less than 15 knots with seas of no more than 2 feet under mostly rain free conditions. The ridge will shift south Friday and Saturday as a front washes out over the waters, allowing winds to increase slightly and turn to southwesterly and westerly on Friday, then northwesterly and northerly on Saturday. A few showers and storms will be possible Friday and Saturday, with locally gusty winds possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 Relative humidity will drop to near critically low levels this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon. However, winds will not be high enough to trigger Red Flag conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 90 77 89 / 0 10 0 0 FMY 74 92 74 91 / 10 10 0 0 GIF 72 95 74 96 / 20 10 0 0 SRQ 72 88 74 87 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 66 91 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 77 87 78 86 / 0 0 0 0 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Fleming