Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 261318
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
918 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

.UPDATE...
Light rainshowers continue to spread over west central and southwest
Florida as well as the gulf coast waters. Latest radar imagery is
showing most of this activity from Tampa Bay southward with only a
few ticks of lightning inside embedded thunderstorms primarily over
the gulf coast waters. The 12Z morning upper air sounding is
continuing to show abundant moisture with a PWAT of 2.02 inches. The
morning sounding is also showing a thick layer of east-southeast
winds from 500MB and below which will drive an east-southeast to
west-northwest shower/storm movement through the day. Latest HRRR
guidance is showing a slight decrease in coverage for the next
couple of hours, which is in line with latest radar, and then
picking up once again between 15-18Z and continuing through the
evening hours. It looks as if most of this will be light-moderate
rainshowers with a few embedded thunderstorms. POPs and weather look
pretty good for now with no significant changes needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
Rainshowers are already moving into west central and southwest
Florida and will continue to spread across the region through the
period. Overall VFR conditions are currently being reported at most
terminals, but you can expect periods of MVFR/IFR for low cigs/vis
in passing showers and thunderstorms. The other aviation concern
will be increasing winds through the day. Winds will remain out of
the east-southeast and increase with gusts near 20-25 knots by this
afternoon and continuing into early Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Weather conditions will not be suitable for mariners to be out on
the gulf coast waters this weekend. Showers and storms have been
pushing through the waters all morning and will continue for the
next couple of days. Conditions will further deteriorate later today
through Monday as Sub-Tropical Storm Alberto moves through the
central Gulf of Mexico. The tightening pressure gradient between
Alberto and high pressure east of Florida has warranted the issuance
of a Small Craft Advisory in effect from this afternoon from Tarpon
Springs southward and then all the gulf waters from this evening
through Monday. Wind gusts with this pattern will approach or exceed
Gale Force conditions on Sunday as the storm passes closest to
Florida. Seas will also ramp up quickly form 2-4 feet today to 8-11
feet by Sunday morning. Winds will slowly decrease on Monday, but
residual seas will still be dangerous for mariners through at least
Wednesday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  82  73  82  75 /  60  70  80  50
FMY  79  73  81  74 /  70  80  80  50
GIF  83  72  82  73 /  50  60  80  50
SRQ  80  73  81  75 /  70  80  90  40
BKV  85  72  82  73 /  40  70  80  50
SPG  84  74  84  74 /  70  80  80  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through
     Tuesday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Monday
     evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal
     Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-
     DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland
     Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-
     Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland
     Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Monday for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for Waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Monday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood
     to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Monday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
     Tampa Bay waters.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...74/Wynn
UPPER AIR...57/McMichael
DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close


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