863
FXUS62 KTBW 141939
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
239 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Today is the last day of above average temperatures across the
region with afternoon highs topping out in the middle 80s. Average
highs this time of year are typically in the upper 70s further north
to around 80 degrees from I-4 southward. South-southeasterly winds
remain gusty early this afternoon, but winds should diminish some as
they turn southwesterly over the next few hours. Southerly flow will
persist ahead of a frontal boundary that will begin impacting
northern portions of the forecast area overnight, then sweeping
south across the Florida Peninsula through Friday morning. Only a
few sprinkles or light showers are forecast with this frontal
passage, mainly across the Nature Coast during the early morning
hours. But high temperatures on Friday will be much more pleasant,
ranging from the middle 70s across the Nature Coast, to around 80
degrees for the I-4 corridor, and into the middle 80s for SWFL.

High pressure will begin to build back in this weekend, centering
over the Florida Peninsula by early next week. During this time,
pleasant temperatures and dry conditions are expected. Significantly
drier air will filter in behind the front with PWATs falling to
around 0.50 inch. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s are expected for
Saturday and Sunday, with low temperatures on Saturday and Sunday
morning ranging from the low 50s to the north to the low 60s across
SWFL. Moisture and temperatures alike will begin to increase again
on Monday as a more tropical airmass lifts northward across the
state. PWATs between 0.75-1 inch are expected with more plentiful
moisture surging into the region later on Tuesday. Temperatures
will also rebound during this time frame with afternoon highs
reaching into the lower to middle 80s.

More uncertainty enters the forecast as we make our way into the
middle to end of next week. As Tropical Storm Sara, currently
located in the Western Caribbean, hugs the Central American coast
line through the weekend, the system will struggle to organize much
further. The storm currently looks to enter the Gulf early next week
as a weak, disorganized system. It`s still too early to determine
the extent of the impacts this tropical system will have on Florida
for the second half of next week, but confidence is high that a
rather rainy pattern is expected. With the degree of land
interaction in the short term and the influence of the upper level
trough in the longer term, it is looking less likely that a strong
tropical system will threaten the Florida Peninsula. Regardless,
weak systems can still bring significant impacts and the Atlantic
Hurricane Season continues through the end of the month, so remain
vigilant and keep updated with the latest forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Gusty southeasterly winds will diminish below 10 kts when they turn
southwesterly this afternoon. Light and variable winds are then
expected overnight. FROPA expected on Friday morning with winds
turning northwesterly behind the front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

The gradient will weaken today with high pressure over the region
allowing southerly winds to relax some. A cold front will move
across the waters tonight and early Friday with northerly winds
increasing to near cautionary levels before diminishing over the
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Minimal fire weather concerns are expected as sufficient moisture
will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical
thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  69  80  59  80 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  70  85  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  68  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  71  82  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  62  78  52  79 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  72  80  64  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ADavis
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Flannery