Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
AXUS72 KTBW 181700
DGTTBW
FLC015-017-027-049-053-055-057-071-075-081-101-103-105-115-119-
201600-

Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
100 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

...Drought conditions improve across West Central and Southwest
Florida...

SYNOPSIS...
During the past week drought conditions have improved across the
region as an upper level disturbance moved north across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico bringing deep tropical moisture northward
leading to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts
have ranged from as little as 1 inch to over 7 inches during the
past week, with many areas seeing between 2 and 5 inches. Since
October 1, 2017 rainfall amounts now range from 10 to 15 inches
over southwest Florida northward near the coast into western Pasco
county, which is about 4 to 8 inches below normal, or 55 to 80
percent of normal. Elsewhere there has been a wide range of
rainfall amounts from 15 to over 25 inches which has brought these
areas back to between 85 percent and 135 percent of normal.

Near to above normal temperatures and rainfall are expected for
the next month or so leading into the Summer rainy season which
usually does not start until the second or third week of June.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
The Severe Drought area has been removed across southern Lee
county, with Moderate drought now in this area. Otherwise
Abnormally Dry conditions exist across Pinellas, western Manatee,
Sarasota, Desoto, Charlotte and eastern portions of Polk county.

Across West Central and Southwest Florida the standard year-round
water conservation measures remain in effect at this time.
However, some local governments may have adopted water shortage
orders with alternate schedules, so be sure to check with your
city or county to see if any are in effect.

The threat of wildfires across West Central and Southwest
Florida, has diminished during the past week thanks to the
widespread rainfall. Keetch Byram Drought Index values have
dropped during the past few week and are currently running from
near 0 in parts of Hardee, Highlands, Hillsborough, Manatee, and
Polk counties to over 500 across western parts of Charlotte and
Lee counties. This scale runs from zero (saturated) to 800
(extreme dryness). Current values are in the low to moderate range
for early May. Without significant rainfall these values will
likely increase over the next few weeks.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
The following table gives the rainfall from October 1, 2017 to
May 17, 2018, the 1981-2010 30 year normal, the departure from
normal, and the percent of normal, for sites across West Central
and Southwest Florida:

                        Site  Observed  30 Yr    Dep fm   Percent
Station                  Id   Rainfall  Normal   Normal  of Normal

Tampa                    TPA:   16.30    17.28    -0.98     94%
St Pete/Clearwater       PIE:   14.73    21.27    -6.54     69%
St Petersburg            SPG:   11.01    19.71    -8.70     56%
Winter Haven             GIF:   12.84    19.85    -7.01     65%
Sarasota-Bradenton       SRQ:   14.75    20.14    -5.39     73%
Punta Gorda              PGD:   13.83    18.25    -4.42     76%
Fort Myers/Page Field    FMY:   11.06    16.73    -5.67     66%
Fort Myers/SW Intl Apt   RSW:   10.69    17.11    -6.42     62%
Chiefland 5 SE         CHIF1:   26.01    24.88     1.13    105%
Inverness 3 SE         INVF1:   21.30    20.06     0.70    103%
Tarpon Springs         TRPF1:   15.94    21.38    -5.44     75%
Plant City             PLCF1:   19.58    19.98    -0.40     98%
Lakeland               LLDF1:   24.69    21.54     3.15    115%
Bartow                 BARF1:   14.97    19.79    -4.82     76%
Mountain Lake          LWLF1:   16.18    19.11    -2.93     85%
Bradenton 5 ESE        BRAF1:   13.34    20.14    -6.80     66%
Wauchula 2 N           WAUF1:   18.11    19.50    -1.39     93%
Venice                 VNCF1:   17.71    19.62    -1.91     90%
Arcadia                ARCF1:   16.13    18.02    -1.89     90%
Archbold Bio Stn       ACHF1:   25.34    18.87     6.47    134%
Punta Gorda 4 ESE      PNTF1:   14.16    17.26    -3.10     82%


The following table gives the rainfall from October 1, 2017 to
April 30, 2018, the 1981-2010 30 year normal, the departure from
normal, and the percent of normal, for a few sites across West
Central and Southwest Florida:

                        Site  Observed  30 Yr    Dep fm   Percent
Station                  Id   Rainfall  Normal   Normal  of Normal

Bushnell 1 E           BSHF1:   17.48    19.56    -2.08     89%
St Leo                 STLF1:   15.41    21.06    -5.65     73%
Myakka River St Pk     MKCF1:   10.86    19.88    -9.02     55%
Desoto City 8 SW       DSOF1:   13.62    16.83    -3.21     81%


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
The Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) 6-10 day and 8-14 day
outlooks call for better chances of near to above normal
temperatures and precipitation across the forecast area.

Meanwhile, the long range outlooks from the CPC for June call for
equal chances of above normal, near normal and below normal
temperatures with better chances of above normal rainfall. The
long range three-month outlook for June, July, and August is for
better chances of above normal temperatures and rainfall.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
Streamflows across the area are generally near to much above
climatological normals with several in the top tenth percentile.
Flows are expected to remain the same or increase over the next
few weeks as some areas could see significant rainfall.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
The next statement will be issued by May 25, 2018.

RELATED WEB SITES...
Additional information and links on the current drought
conditions may be found at the following web sites:

Local NWS Tampa Bay Drought Page...
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/droughtinfo

U.S. Drought Monitor...
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

NOAA Drought Page...
https://www.drought.gov

Climate Prediction Center...
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Southeast Regional Climate Center...
http://www.sercc.com

Florida Forest Service...
https://www.freshfromflorida.com/Divisions-Offices/Florida-
Forest-Service

Southwest Florida Water Management District...
http://www.swfwmd.state.fl.us

South Florida Water Management District...
https://www.sfwmd.gov

Suwannee River Water Management District...
http://fl-suwanneeriver.civicplus.com

United States Geological Survey...
https://fl.water.usgs.gov

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...
Information for this report was provided by the following:
The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, National
Drought Mitigation Center, Florida Forest Service, United States
Geological Survey, Southwest Florida Water Management District
and South Florida Water Management District.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
WFO Tampa Bay - Ruskin, FL
2525 14th Avenue SE
Ruskin, FL 33570
Phone: 813-645-2323
E-mail: sr-tbw.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$

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