Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 242332 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
532 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 256 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Strong winds, blowing dust, and critical fire weather conditions
will continue to impact eastern NM through the afternoon. Rain and
mountain snow showers will favor northern NM this afternoon through
Monday night. Snow and blowing snow will create minor to locally
moderate travel impacts in the northern mountains and northeast
highlands and plains tonight and tomorrow. Scattered mountain snow
and lower elevation rain showers are likely Tuesday afternoon then a
drying and warming trend commences on Wednesday. Above average
temperatures and breezy to windy southwest winds are likely late
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 256 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Impressive 300 mb 160+ kt jet max is currently straddling the US/MX
border. Meanwhile, a strong Pacific front has cruised across the
state, bringing strong wind gusts and rounds of rain and snow. The
jet max will move into West TX this evening, allowing winds to
slacken somewhat, but elevated winds will remain overnight,
especially across the high terrain and its adjacent highlands. The
majority of the precipitation over the western portion of the CWA
will diminish into the evening hours as the more favorable forcing
moves east. Meanwhile, the exiting upper low will kick off a gusty
and moist backdoor front in southeastern CO into eastern NM. The
front will surge southward in the early morning hours Monday, the
enhanced lift of which will likely inspire bands of robust snowfall
with some locales seeing 6" to 10" of additional accumulations
through Monday evening. The snow in combination with the gusty
northerly winds may create hazardous travel conditions on I-25 in
and around Raton Pass and along the mtn highways through the
Sangre de Cristo Mts to the upper RGV. As such, did opt to upgrade
the already issued Winter Weather Advisory to a Winter Storm
Warning, adding the upper RGV. Much colder temperatures follow
behind in the wake of this front, with locales in eastern NM
seeing readings 20F to 30F colder than Sunday`s readings. Rain and
snow showers will taper off Monday evening with below normal
temperatures expected Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Weak destabilization and moist westerly flow will create scattered
convective showers across the area Tuesday afternoon. Lightning will
be isolated, but most favored in the southwest mountains where
global models are showing slightly negative LIs. Overall, impacts
will be relatively low although snow and graupel showers could
create localized travel impacts in the high terrain of western and
northern NM.

Dry northwest flow takes over on Wednesday afternoon, eliminating
any precip. chances. Increasing winds aloft out ahead of an
amplifying ridge will create breezy to windy conditions, favoring
the central mountain chain and adjacent highlands. Flow aloft turns
more zonal late week and temps climb above seasonal averages. It
looks increasingly likely that Friday will be the first 70 degree
day of the year in Albuquerque while locations in the east-central
plains could be approaching 80. Ensemble guidance is in good
agreement that a bowling-ball Low will enter into the desert
southwest next weekend although the speed of its progression inland
remains highly uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 410 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Strong westerly winds persist across the area early this evening,
but a gradual downtrend is forecast this evening. Areas of
blowing dust across southeast NM that has been impacting KROW
with IFR conditions will diminish by 02Z. Areas of mountain
obscurations will persist overnight with some improvement Monday.
Mostly VFR conditions currently prevail, but MVFR conditions can
be expected with scattered showers into the evening hours. A
backdoor cold front will push through KLVS and KTCC around 10Z and
bring deteriorating conditions. At this time, KTCC is forecast to
stay MVFR behind the backdoor cold front Monday, but KLVS will
likely see IFR conditions in light snow. Another round of showers
will develop Monday afternoon and may impact central and western
terminals. Otherwise, windy conditions will persist Monday, but
well below today`s speeds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 256 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM DUE
TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

A backdoor front will surge southward down the eastern plains Monday
bringing gusty northerly winds and much colder temperatures to those
locales. Elsewhere, breezy to locally windy northwest winds will
persist in the afternoon. Rain and snow showers will continue Monday
and Tuesday with below normal temperatures. Shortwave ridging takes
hold Wednesday with markedly drier conditions areawide. Minimum RH
falls 10 to 20 percent most areas amongst sunny skies. The warming
and drying trend will persist through the end of the week with a
return to widespread low double digit minimum RH expected Friday
amongst breezy to locally windy southwest winds. This will lead to a
large swath of critical fire weather conditions across the highlands
of the central mountains and their adjacent plains. A similar setup
is expected on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  30  49  28  51 /  30   5   0  10
Dulce...........................  25  47  20  47 /  70  50  20  40
Cuba............................  25  43  24  44 /  60  40   5  40
Gallup..........................  21  46  23  47 /  50  20  10  40
El Morro........................  23  40  24  42 /  50  20  10  60
Grants..........................  24  45  24  45 /  30  10   5  30
Quemado.........................  25  43  25  43 /  30  20  10  60
Magdalena.......................  29  47  30  47 /  10  10   5  40
Datil...........................  25  42  26  42 /  10  10  10  40
Reserve.........................  23  48  23  47 /  30  40  30  60
Glenwood........................  32  51  32  50 /  40  50  20  70
Chama...........................  22  40  15  41 /  90  80  50  50
Los Alamos......................  30  41  28  43 /  50  70  20  40
Pecos...........................  26  41  21  44 /  50  80  40  40
Cerro/Questa....................  29  36  25  37 /  90  90  70  40
Red River.......................  19  33  14  35 /  90  90  80  60
Angel Fire......................  17  32  12  34 /  90  90  80  60
Taos............................  24  40  18  43 /  80  90  70  30
Mora............................  23  35  17  42 /  60  90  60  40
Espanola........................  32  49  27  51 /  50  70  30  20
Santa Fe........................  28  41  25  44 /  60  80  30  40
Santa Fe Airport................  29  46  26  49 /  40  60  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  35  50  34  52 /  20  40   5  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  34  52  34  53 /  10  30   0  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  34  55  34  56 /  10  20   0  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  34  53  33  54 /  10  30   0  20
Belen...........................  33  56  33  56 /   5  20   0  20
Bernalillo......................  35  53  33  55 /  20  40   0  30
Bosque Farms....................  32  55  32  56 /  10  20   0  30
Corrales........................  34  54  33  55 /  20  30   0  20
Los Lunas.......................  33  55  32  55 /   5  20   0  30
Placitas........................  33  48  33  49 /  20  50   5  30
Rio Rancho......................  34  52  33  54 /  20  30   0  20
Socorro.........................  35  57  36  58 /   5  10   0  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  30  42  29  44 /  20  50   5  30
Tijeras.........................  30  45  30  47 /  20  50   5  30
Edgewood........................  30  45  28  48 /  20  50   5  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  27  48  25  49 /  20  40  10  20
Clines Corners..................  25  42  23  45 /  20  60  10  20
Mountainair.....................  28  46  28  47 /  20  30  10  20
Gran Quivira....................  27  47  27  48 /  10  30  10  30
Carrizozo.......................  31  51  33  52 /  10  20  10  30
Ruidoso.........................  26  43  27  44 /  20  30  20  30
Capulin.........................  18  27  14  39 /  90  70  10  20
Raton...........................  22  34  17  44 /  90  60  40  20
Springer........................  26  37  20  47 /  70  60  40  20
Las Vegas.......................  25  35  20  44 /  50  80  40  20
Clayton.........................  24  32  20  44 /  80  60   0  10
Roy.............................  27  34  23  47 /  60  70  30  20
Conchas.........................  32  40  27  55 /  50  80  20  20
Santa Rosa......................  32  40  25  53 /  50  70  20  10
Tucumcari.......................  29  39  25  55 /  50  70  10  10
Clovis..........................  33  42  27  57 /  20  60  10  30
Portales........................  33  44  26  60 /  10  50  10  20
Fort Sumner.....................  33  45  27  57 /  30  70  10  20
Roswell.........................  39  59  34  63 /   5  20  10  10
Picacho.........................  34  54  32  57 /   0  20   5  10
Elk.............................  31  51  30  55 /   5  20   5  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ223-225-226-
229>240.

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-126.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for NMZ202-206-210-
211.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ208-212-215-
220>222-224-228-241.

Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Monday
for NMZ215-216-227.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Monday for NMZ213-214.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...11


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