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000
FXUS61 KALY 210230
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1030 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier weather will return for Sunday and Monday,
with a good deal of sun each day and breezy conditions. Milder
temperatures will briefly return for Tuesday before another
front returns chilly weather to the region for the rest of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 1030 PM EDT...Few changes were made during this
update outside of minor adjustments to maintain consistency with
latest obs. Temperatures have fallen into the 30s and 40s across
eastern New York and western New England with the anticipation
for lows to be in the 20s and 30s. See previous discussion for
additional details.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [358 PM EDT]...
Band of showers will track through our region with isolated to
scattered areas of measurable rain. There may be a rumble of
thunder in some areas as well. Upper energy will exit through
the night and clouds will tend to decrease in coverage this
evening. By daybreak, most areas should be mostly clear.

Steady west to northwest winds through the night will slow the
cooling of temperatures but cold advection will help
temperatures fall to the 30s with 20s higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Northern stream upper energy tracks out of Canada with an
associated reinforcing cold front and deeper cold advection
Sunday into Monday. West to northwest winds will be breezy
through Monday and due to a lack of moisture, there should just
be some intervals of clouds Sunday and lots of sun Monday.

Upper energy lifts north into Canada and as upper heights rise
in our region, warm advection occurs Tuesday. Some high clouds
could spread into our region Tuesday well ahead of the next
upper energy approaching from the west.

Highs Sunday in the 50s with 40s in higher terrain. Highs Monday
in the 50s to near 60 with 40s to near 50 in higher terrain.
Highs Tuesday in the 60s with mid to upper 50s higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Strong upper energy tracks into the region Tuesday night through
Wednesday and there are some considerable differences in sources
of guidance/ensembles as to the strength of the upper energy
and how much cold advection we get into our region after it
exits Wednesday night into Thursday. There will be showers
Tuesday night through Wednesday, with drying out and clearing
later Wednesday night into Thursday. Dry weather is expected
Thursday and Friday, before another system potentially affects
our region with more unsettled weather toward Saturday.

Highs Wednesday with the showers, in the 50s to near 60 with 40s
to around 50 higher terrain. Highs Thursday in the 50s with
40s higher terrain. Highs Friday in the 50s to near 60 with
around 50 higher terrain. Highs Saturday in the mid 50s to
around 60 with lower 50s higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00z Monday... VFR conditions prevail across all
terminals this evening as mid-level dry air is advected into the
region behind this afternoon`s cold front. Breezy conditions
persist, but will gradually lessen overnight as diurnal effects
are lost. VFR conditions are expected to remain dominant
throughout the entirety of the 00z TAF period with skies
becoming clear overnight before an upper-level disturbance
reinforces some cloud cover tomorrow morning.

Winds will gradually lessen in magnitude overnight, becoming
light primarily out of the northwest at sustained speeds of
about 5-10 kt. Breezy conditions will resume tomorrow with
sustained speeds increasing to 9-12 kt with gusts of 15-25 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
West to northwest winds may gust to 25 mph on Sunday, and
around 20 mph on Monday...

Dry and breezy weather will be in place across the region for
Sunday through Tuesday. While temperatures will be on the cool
side for Sunday and Monday, valley areas should be back into the
60s by Tuesday. There will be some cloud cover for Sunday,
although Monday looks fairly sunny. After a sunny morning on
Tuesday, some clouds will increase by later in the day. RH
values may be as low as 30 percent during the afternoon hours,
although there should be a recovery during the overnight hours.

Winds will be westerly on Sunday and Monday with some gusts up
to 25 mph in the afternoon hours. Southerly winds on Tuesday
could gust as high as 30 mph late in the day.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...Gant/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Gant
FIRE WEATHER...NAS