Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 241746
TWDAT

TTropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Mar 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning and Large N swell: Gale force S to
SE winds continue across the western Atlantic this morning, north
of 27N between 70W and 65W, ahead and behind a cold front that
extends from 31N68W to the southern Bahamas near 22N75W. Seas are
11 to 15 ft across this zone. As the front continues advancing
eastward, the gales will shift northward of 28N by midday, and
then lift N of 31N and the area waters by sunset today. Seas
across the area of gales will remain in the 12 to 15 ft range
through this evening.

The cold front is connected to broad low surface pressure across
the Atlantic to the W and NW of Bermuda. This area of low
pressure will continue moving NE and stall well offshore of Cape
Hatteras tonight, where it will become better organized and
deepen. Strong to gale-force N to NE winds occurring on the
western side of this low will generate large N to NE swell that
will begin to move into the local NW Atlantic waters this
afternoon, propagate into the Florida coasts, and reach the
Bahamas and Atlantic waters W of 70W tonight. Seas above 12 ft
will reach as far south as 27N tonight, and cover much of the area
between 67W AND 80W. Peak seas of 18 ft are expected along 31N
tonight. The low pressure center is forecast by global models to
move SE Mon night through mid-week, and will cross 31N Tue
morning, then begin to weaken is it moves to near 25N64W by Thu.
Large northerly swell generated across the western semicircle of
this low will move into the local Atlantic waters with the low,
and maintain a large area of seas above 12 ft through Tue night, N
of 26N between 63W and 77W. Seas could peak as high as 20 ft
along 31N71W on Mon night. Seas will then begin to slowly diminish
across the Atlantic waters Wed through Thu.

Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
adjust their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High
Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

Bahamas Heavy Rainfall: A vigorous line of thunderstorms
associated with the cold front has shifted E and NE and is still
impacting the southern Bahamas and adjacent waters to the NE.
These thunderstorms can produce heavy downpours with low
visibility, frequent gale-force wind gusts, and possible
waterspouts. Over land, heavy rainfall may lead to flooding. As
the frontal system exits the area this morning, conditions will
improve. Please refer to https://www.weather.gov for the latest
local rainfall information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W then
continues SW to 04N21W. The ITCZ extends from 4N21W to 00N35W
and to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 90 nm of the ITCZ/Monsoon trough axis.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure across the eastern U.S. extends to the north
central Gulf. Seas are subsiding across the eastern Gulf,
ranging from 4 to 7 ft east of 90W, where winds have diminished
to moderate.  Fresh to strong SE winds are over the western
Gulf, where seas are mainly 3 to 5 ft, peaking at 6 ft in areas
of strong winds closer to the TX/Mexico coast.

For the forecast, high pressure across Gulf will shift eastward
through Mon, allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds to
prevail over the western Gulf today. Strong southerly winds will
then expand to the central and eastern Gulf tonight through Mon
night as a new cold front enters the western Gulf early Mon night.
Fresh to strong N winds are briefly expected Tue behind the front
over the W and SW Gulf. The front will move slowly E-SE and
weaken mid-week, from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of
Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front has stalled from central Cuba to 15N84W. No
significant precipitation is associated with this boundary.
Moderate NW to N winds are occurring across the far NW Caribbean
behind the cold front, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Moderate to
fresh SW winds are ahead of the front N of 18N and into the
eastern half of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, high
pressure over the NW Atlantic extends a surface ridge
southwestward to the Leeward Islands and is sustaining moderate
trade winds across the eastern Caribbean Sea E of 70W. Seas are 3
to 5 ft across the central and eastern basin. For the forecast,
the stationary front extending through the southern Bahamas across
eastern Cuba and into Honduras will drift E and dissipate from
Hispaniola to NE Nicaragua on Mon. Northerly winds behind the
front today will veer to the SE on Mon and become fresh to strong
over the western Caribbean late Mon through Tue, ahead of the next
frontal system entering the Gulf of Mexico. Large N swell will
reach the Atlantic Passages of the NE and E Caribbean late Tue and
persist through early Thu. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain
well below normal through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about
the Gale Warning and Cuba and the Bahamas Heavy Rainfall.

Aside from the area in the Special Features, the remaining
subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad surface
ridge that is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds over the far
E Atlantic and easterly winds of the same magnitude over the
central Atlantic waters. Rough seas between 8 to 13 ft are E of
44W while rough seas to 10 ft are ahead of the front in the
Special Features reaching as far as 65W. W of the cold front
strong to near gale-force N to NE winds has crossed 31N in recent
hours and are impacting the nearshore coastal waters of NE
Florida. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are elsewhere behind the
front and E of Florida. Seas there are 6 to 10 ft in mixed SE and
N swell. Strong to near severe convection E of the front has
weakened to moderate to isolated strong between the front and
65W.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong to gale-force S winds
occurring N of 29N and W of 65W will shift slowly eastward
through this evening, ahead of a cold front that currently extends
from 31N68W to 22N76W. The front will reach from 31N65W to the
Windward Passage by Mon morning, then weaken considerably as it
moves SE across the Atlantic and adjacent NE Caribbean waters
through Tue night. Strong to near gale-force NE winds and large NE
to N swell will follow the front through tonight. Low pressure
will deepen NW of Bermuda Mon, and move SE and slowly weaken
across the area waters Tue through Thu. Large N to NW swell will
spread across the waters E of 70W, and NE swell W of 70W, Mon
night through Wed night.

$$
Mora


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