Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
905 FXUS61 KBGM 040735 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 335 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Rain showers will be across the area this weekend, as a slow moving front pushes through finally late Sunday. High pressure looks to be short lived Monday and Tuesday, before another frontal boundary and areas of low pressure move through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 330 am update... A weak frontal boundary is producing some sprinkles early this morning from Syracuse to Elmira and Troy PA. Rain is having a hard time making it through the dry low levels. Rain and better moisture over southwest and central PA will slowly creep northeast into NEPA and the southern tier of CNY late this afternoon and tonight for the rest of the area. Clouds are already here and will remain through Sunday. Most of the rain will fall late tonight and Sunday before moving east Sunday night with a cold front. Rainfall totals will be mostly under an inch. With clouds and cooler temperatures instability will be tough to get today and tonight. Sunday afternoon there could be a little instability but only a few models show this. Kept thunderstorms out of the forecast for this period. With little rain today high temperatures range from the mid 60s along the I90 corridor to around 60 in the southern tier and NEPA. Tonight low temperatures will be from the mid 40s to around 50. Sunday high temperatures will range from the low 60s in the Finger Lakes and central southern tier where the least rain will fall to the mid 50s in the western Catskills. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 120 PM Update... Zonal flow pattern aloft keeps conditions relatively active during this period. Rain showers are expected to continue on Sunday as an occluded front slowly moves eastwards. Meanwhile a low pressure system over the Great Lakes drags a cold front into our region by Sunday evening. This will bring more showers with a few thunderstorms possible in the evening hours. Rainfall amounts are up to a quarter inch but any evening thunderstorms that develop could drop an inch of rain. Instability parameters are weak on model guidance, therefore not expecting much concern with these storms. Temperatures cool on Sunday with highs ranging in the low 50s to low 60s. Overnight temperatures are not expected to deviate far off of daytime highs. Lows will range in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A secondary cold front could bring some scattered rain showers Monday through Monday night. Not expecting a lot of rain with this system as the levels remain relatively dry. Precip chances are more favorable to the south of our region. Otherwise once this weak system moves thorough conditions remain dry overnight with brief high pressure building in over the Great Lakes. Temperatures on Monday will climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s in the afternoon and fall into the upper 40s to low 50s overnight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 120 PM Update... A warm front draped over the midwest approaches the region on Tuesday. Model guidance shows some timing differences in the arrival of this system. Regardless showers are expected to move in at least by the evening time frame and last overnight. This should leave most of Tuesday precipitation free. As of now Tuesday appears to be the driest day during this period. Warm front passes sometime Wednesday through Thursday bringing in more rain showers with afternoon thunderstorms. Similar pattern continues into Friday as well with yet another disturbance moving into the region. Otherwise temperatures during this period will remain mild with highs in the upper 60 to upper 70s and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 120 AM Update VFR to prevail areawide into the afternoon. Conditions fall from south to north late today and tonight. AVP will be the first to fall to MVFR with rain showers around 20z. Fuel alternate around 23z. BGM/ELM drop to MVFR around 22z then fuel alternate around 01z. ITH drop to MVFR around 00z. Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 kts this morning. This afternoon and tonight winds will be 10 with gusts to 15 to 20 kts. Outlook... Overnight tonight through Sunday night...Periods of rain will bring restrictions to the entire forecast area. Looking mainly MVFR to MVFR fuel Alternate, but some occasional IFR restrictions are also possible, mainly on Sunday. Monday...Lingering Ceiling restrictions in the morning, then becoming VFR. Monday Night and Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected. Tuesday night and Wednesday...Increasing chance of rain and restrictions. Embedded thunder also possible on Wednesday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG/TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...TAC