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000
FXUS63 KBIS 222047
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
347 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions into this evening over
  southwest and south central North Dakota including the James
  River Valley. A Red Flag Warning remains for these areas.

- Winds gusting 45 to 55 mph over most of western and central
  North Dakota through this evening. A Wind Advisory remains for
  these areas.

- Rains showers across the north, central, and east possible
  through tonight. An isolated thunderstorm also possible
  through this evening for these same locations.

- After a mild and mainly dry mid week, unsettled pattern
  develops for the later part of the work week into the weekend.
  This will bring daily shower chances with possibly some
  thunderstorms.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Strong winds and critical fire weather conditions will continue
through much of this evening as a clipper system moves through.
Some wind gusts in the west and north central are around 55 MPH.
Regrouped the Wind Advisories to highlight areas with these
higher wind gusts. South central and eastern zones in the Wind
Advisory are starting to see wind gusts approach 45 MPH and
could get as high as 50 mph. These winds combined with low RH
will continue the critical fire weather threat into this
evening, and a Red Flag Warning remains. See the Fire Weather
Discussion below for the latest details. Showers are starting to
redevelop across the north closer to the clipper system. There
still remains some weak instability in the north and east, with
some modest lapse rates. This could result in an isolated
thunderstorm through the evening. The inverted v soundings in
these areas could provide for a few higher wind gusts near these
showers or thunderstorms. Showers could then linger through
tonight, while winds ease below advisory criteria. Low
temperatures will be in the lower 30s to lower 40s. As the
clipper moves east low clouds could linger across the area as
well.

Showers dissipated by Tuesday morning, although low clouds may
linger through the morning. Breezy to perhaps windy northwest
winds could linger, especially across the southeast. Slightly
cooler temperatures will be found on Tuesday, mainly in the 50s.
Warm westerly flow aloft, with a surface gradient bringing
breezy southerly, looks to be found Wednesday. Look for mild
temperatures in the 60s to perhaps lower 70s. Further warming
and breezy southerly winds then continues for Thursday with many
areas seeing high temperatures in the 70s. A broad trough
pattern and developing surface low could bring some showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms later in the day Thursday through
Thursday night.

This unsettled pattern still looks to remain through the weekend.
Overall temperatures still look to remain seasonable with
overnight lows near to above freezing. The highest NBM PoPs in
the forecast are currently on Friday, although slight to chance
pops remain through the weekend. A few thunderstorms are
possible Friday, with minimal chances through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Strong northwest winds and mainly VFR conditions look to be
found this afternoon. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms
are also possible, mainly in the north. Placed VCSH in TAFs with
shower potential for the time being. Clouds will increase across
the north from this shower potential this afternoon, and could
be near MVFR heights. Tonight, showers may linger although look
to become more isolated in coverage. Ceilings look to lower to
MVFR heights for most sites, with a breezy northwest wind
continuing. Tuesday morning then sees the chances for showers
diminish and MVFR ceilings gradually lift to VFR heights. Breezy
northwest winds may also linger.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Critical fire weather conditions, and a resultant Red Flag
Warning, remains across much of southwestern and south central
North Dakota including the James River Valley. Despite morning
rain showers, these ares will see strong winds gusting 45 to 55
MPH into this evening with RH values dropping to near or even
slightly below 20 percent. Areas not in a Red Flag Warning
across the north will still see windy conditions, although RH
values will generally be above 30 percent through the evening.
Isolated near critical fire weather conditions are possible,
although showers and clouds are expected to move in this
evening across the north possibly spreading into the central and
east. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible through this
evening. Tonight, breezy northwest winds will linger with
humidity recoveries 80 to 90 percent.

Tuesday and Wednesday day will be mainly dry. Breezy northwest
winds may linger on Tuesday, while a breezy southerly wind looks
to return on Wednesday. Afternoon RH on Tuesday looks to be
around 25 to 35 percent, while Wednesday sees RH slightly lower
from 20 to 30 percent. If winds and low RH can line up then
perhaps some near critical fire weather conditions are possible
through Wednesday and may be worth monitoring. Later in the week
higher moisture air moves into the area resulting in higher
humidity values and rain chances.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ001>003-009>012-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin
FIRE WEATHER...Anglin