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000
FXUS64 KBMX 241736
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1236 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT WED APR 24 2024

A weak surface front has entered into northwest Alabama as we
approach midday. Broken mid-level clouds between 7,000 and 10,000
feet associated with the front are currently present generally
along and north of the I-85 corridor. The presence of the clouds
are expected to temper the diurnal curve just a bit and lead to
high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, while full sunshine
will send highs into the lower 80s for locations such as Troy and
Eufaula this afternoon. In terms of the rain chances today, it
appears that the high-res guidance from yesterday was a little too
bullish in terms of the rain chances. The 12z KBMX sounding still
contains an ample amount of dry air across the profile, which will
continue to be a limiting factor in terms of convective
development. I`ve continued the slight chance of showers and
perhaps a storm across western counties in Central Alabama through
the peak heating of the day as the surface front moves southward
near the U.S. 80/I-85 corridor. Overnight tonight, mid-level
clouds are expected to gradually clear in most locations. With the
stalled surface boundary still in the vicinity, we could be
looking at the chance for fog development as low-level moisture
pools near and just south of the front. Patchy fog has been added
to the forecast overnight for eastern and southeastern locations
and nearby major lakes and stream basins. Temperatures will be
allowed to drop into the upper 40s for northern counties north of
the front, while upper 50s are expected in the far south.

Upper level heights will begin to rise during the day on Thursday
as a 500mb ridge develops over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. A
shortwave trough embedded within northwesterly flow aloft will
move through the region, along with the surface front lifting
northward as a warm front. At least isolated showers and storms
will be possible during the peak heating of the day with warm
temperatures expected in the low to mid 80s.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT WED APR 24 2024

An upper-level trough moving into the Southern Plains will induce
southerly low-level flow as far east as Alabama on Thursday
evening. A warm front extending from Northeast Oklahoma to West
Alabama will accelerate northward with the onset of southerly
flow. Beneath west- northwest 500 mb flow of 30-35 kts, increasing
moisture and warm advection may trigger isolated or scattered
showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening mainly north of I-20.
Any such activity will shift to the northeast and out of our
forecast area during the overnight hours.

Two shortwave ejections will occur across the Plains and Midwest
in the Friday through Sunday period while a ridge remains in
control over the Southeast CONUS. Eventually the second trough in
the Plains should progress eastward on Monday and Tuesday leading
to increasing rain chances mainly north of I-59.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT WED APR 24 2024

VFR conditions can be expected through the forecast period. Mid-
level broken clouds will persist through the afternoon hours
before decreasing in coverage overnight. An outside chance of
isolated SHRA/TSRA remain in the forecast, but confidence is too
low to even include a PROB30 at this time. Light westerly winds
will continue this afternoon then become mainly calm overnight.
We`ll be watching for the potential of fog development across
eastern and southeastern Alabama overnight tonight. Currently, no
visibility restrictions have been included within the TAFs just
yet, but based on model guidance trends and satellite/observation
trends that could change in future TAF issuances. VFR conditions
will continue through the day on Thursday.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A weak front with very little rain in the form of a few
showers/storms moves through this afternoon. 20 ft winds will
become westerly at 6 to 8 mph, with minimum RH values above 35
percent. Another chance of showers/storms exists Thursday
afternoon, with only modest increase in coverage compared to
Wednesday. 20 ft winds on Thursday will become easterly at
6 to 8 mph, with minimum RH values 30 to 35 in the northeast, and
above 35 percent, elsewhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     76  48  80  57 /  10   0  10  30
Anniston    76  51  80  59 /  10  10  10  30
Birmingham  76  54  81  62 /  20  10  20  20
Tuscaloosa  78  56  81  61 /  20  20  20  10
Calera      76  55  80  61 /  20  20  20  10
Auburn      77  57  80  62 /  10  10  20   0
Montgomery  80  58  84  60 /  10   0  20   0
Troy        82  57  83  60 /  10   0  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...56/GDG