079
FXUS65 KBOI 081530
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
930 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

.DISCUSSION...The northeasterly flow aloft persists over the
area into Thursday, influenced by the upper-level low positioned
over the Northern Plains. This will maintain overcast to broken
clouds in the morning, along with isolated showers. However,
anticipate some clearing of the skies later this afternoon.

Web cameras capture snow showers above 4000 feet in the West
Central and Boise Mountains this morning, with Bogus Basin
receiving a light dusting of snow. Radar shows increased
activity transitioning from the mountains to the valleys,
boosting confidence in showers continuing southwest into the
Western Snake Plain later this morning into early afternoon.
These showers are likely to produce minimal rainfall.

Winds are expected to be lighter compared to yesterday, though
breezy conditions are still anticipated today, especially east
of Boise from Mountain Home through Glenns Ferry.

An update to the forecast has been issued, with higher
probabilities of precipitation across much of Southwest Idaho
for the remainder of the morning into the afternoon. Overall,
the forecast remains in good shape.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Mid and high clouds decreasing through the day.
Low chance (25%) of light showers at KTWF/KJER. Sfc winds: W-N 10-20
kt with gusts to 25 kt, except 15-25 kt with gusts to 35 kt from
vicinity KMUO SE to KJER/KTWF. Winds at 10k ft MSL: N 15-30 kt,
becoming NE 10-25 kt by 09/00Z.

KBOI...VFR with decreasing mid and high clouds. Virga/very light
showers through 08/18Z. Sfc winds: W-NW 5-15 kt this morning,
becoming 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...A large upper level
low to our east, combined with ridging off the coast, will give
us northerly flow today. There will be enough moisture pushed
west by the upper low to keep low PoPs (15-30%) over our
eastern fringe, but any precipitation will be light and will
end by this evening. Temps will be 5-10 degrees below normal
today due to yesterday`s cold front. The ridge off the coast
will build inland mostly to our north Thursday and remain in
control of our weather through the remainder of the short term
period, providing us with mostly dry and progressively warmer
weather. There a small chance (15-30%) of showers and
thunderstorms in/near Twin Falls County Thursday afternoon as
the last of the moisture is pushed south out of the area. High
temperatures will be a few degrees above normal Thursday, then
5-10 above normal Friday. Some parts of the lower Treasure
Valley will likely (30-80% chance) hit 80 Friday.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...The upper ridge will
slide over us and then move to our south Saturday into Sunday,
allowing weak westerly flow to move back into our area. Monday
through Wednesday, our upper flow shifts to northwest. We will
remain warm (5-10 degrees above normal) through Tuesday, and
most likely still be a little above normal Wednesday. Dry
weather is expected, except there is a slight chance of showers
in southeast Owyhee and southern Twin Falls counties Monday
afternoon. The long term models are in better agreement than we
typically see, so this is a relatively high-confidence
forecast.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....JR
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....SP