000
FXUS65 KBOI 161616
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
1016 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.DISCUSSION...High clouds are increasing this morning ahead of
an upper shortwave trough over Canada. Higher terrain will see
cumulus buildups this afternoon and a slight chance of showers
is possible. Continued westerly flow aloft will support breezy
northwest winds again today, though weaker than yesterday. No
updates to the morning forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR. Areas of mountain obscuration this
morning, then isolated snow showers over higher terrain of SW Idaho
tonight. Surface winds W-NW 10-20 kt, with gusts to 30 kt near
KTWF/KJER. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 20-30 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Mid/high level broken/overcast through tonight. NW wind
7-12 kt with occasional afternoon gusts to 18 kt. Winds should
briefly decrease to 4-8 kt from 01-05Z before returning to 7-12 kt
for the remainder of the night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night...Cool, dry, and breezy
weather today as a short wave upper ridge passes through from west
to east. Colder upper trough in western Canada will sag south
Wednesday, with an east-west oriented surface cold front passing
through our northern zones this evening and southern zones
Wednesday. The front will bring light snow showers to Valley
County/ID with up to an inch accumulation, and flurries as far
west as the mountains in Baker County and as far south as the
Boise Mountains. Elsewhere only clouds are expected. Behind the
front will be gusty west/northwest winds and cooler and drier
air. Winds will increase to near-advisory speeds in south-
central Idaho Wednesday afternoon, then decrease Wednesday
night. Temperatures will cool to the 20s to lower 30s with
clearing skies and dry air in place, resulting in a light freeze
in the agricultural valleys Thursday morning. Thursday looks
sunny and cool with breezy northwest winds as the upper trough
exits east, and Thursday night looks clear and cold again with
lighter winds.

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Cool, northwest flow will
continue along the back side of a broad trough over the northern
U.S. for Friday, with drier conditions expected. Beginning early
Saturday, a weak ridge will build as the trough exits toward
the east, and temperatures will trend a few degrees warmer over
the weekend than previous days. Meanwhile, model members suggest
a quick-moving shortwave trough will arrive in the Pacific
Northwest by late in the weekend. This trough is currently
forecast to remain farther north along the Canadian border,
bringing only a slight chance (10-15%) of showers for west-
central Idaho late Saturday and Sunday. A ridge will return
for Monday and Tuesday, though shower chances will begin to
increase (10-20% chance) as moisture enters the region.
Temperatures will reach roughly 10 degrees above normal for
the weekend through Tuesday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....SP
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....SH