719
FXUS64 KBRO 091950
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
250 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

While today does look to be the hottest day for the week, however a
bit of relief is expected with a cold front moving into Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Thanks to the cold front expected
highs for tomorrow are closer to normal in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Meanwhile the overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the
70s for both tonight and tomorrow night as well. The haze that has
been lingering in the region is also expected to persist through
most of the short term forecast period.

As for rain chances, even with this cold front, chances of rain are
still not great. The mid-levels continue to be very dry and with
some influence from mid-level ridge the environment continues not
to be favorable for any sort of development of showers and
thunderstorms. However, towards the end of the short term forecast
period on Friday night, the influence of the mid-level ridge is
expected to weaken a bit, which might allow for some isolated
showers and thunderstorms to pop up.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Key Messages:

-Cooler temperatures expected for the weekend.

-Increased chance for much needed rainfall.

To start the long term period, a weak cold front will stall along
the US/Mexico border through the day, then lift back north on Sunday
as a warm front. This will allow easterly winds to help bring in
cooler temperatures for the weekend. Highs on Saturday will be in
the mid to upper 80s for much of the area, though we could see a few
90s out west and along the border. A bit warmer for Sunday with 80s
to mid 90s as the front lifts north and southerly winds return. With
the return of southerly winds and high pressure over the SE U.S.,
temperatures will warm through next week with triple digits
returning to the Rio Grande Plains by Monday and spreading into the
mid-Valley by Thursday. The cool spots will be along the coast with
highs in the mid 80s for the week. Overnight lows remain fairly
steady-state only falling into the mid to upper 70s each night.

Weak overrunning, a few impulses moving overhead and onshore flow
will keep chances of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
through the weekend and into Monday afternoon. The Storm Prediction
Center has all of Deep South Texas in a general thunderstorm risk
for Saturday. The best chances of precipitation will be across the
northern Ranchlands where precip chances top out at 35%.
Unfortunately as you head south, these chances fall and top out only
at 15-20% for the entire period. Will continue to monitor the
forecast for any changes, and do some rain dances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

While VFR conditions are expected to continue for most of the
afternoon and into the evening at the TAF sites. A return of MVFR
ceilings is expected for HRL and BRO during the overnight hours as
low-level clouds move in. While southeasterly winds are also
expected to continue a BRO, a dryline is expected to create a
shift in the wind direction towards the west northwest around 16Z
for MFE and 18Z for HRL. However despite the change in wind
direction, winds are expected to be light. Persistent haze is
likely to keep the visibilities down through the TAF period to
about 5 or 6 miles.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Friday through Next Wednesday...Light to moderate southeasterly
winds with moderate seas are expected to prevail through the
majority of the period. Short period of Small Craft Exercise Caution
is possible over the Laguna Madre is possible tomorrow with a weak
cold front moving through the Lower Texas Coast. Winds are also
expected to shift more towards the east with the approaching cold
front.

Saturday Through Wednesday...Moderate easterly to southeasterly
winds and seas of generally 3 to 4 feet will prevail through the
forecast period. Brief periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution
conditions will be possible, mainly over the weekend, due to
elevated winds. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible at
times Saturday through Monday which could locally enhance winds
and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             78  92  77  87 /   0   0  10  20
HARLINGEN               77  92  74  88 /   0   0  10  20
MCALLEN                 79  96  77  90 /   0  10  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         78  95  75  89 /   0  10  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      77  83  77  81 /   0   0  10  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  87  75  85 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ251-254-255.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....68-McGinnis
AVIATION...64-Katz