Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
913 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST MAINE...

This is the ninth Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook for 2024,
issued by the National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine. This
outlook is for Northern, Central, and Downeast Maine for the one
week period of March 27th through April 4th, 2024.

The potential for Ice Jams is Above Normal across the St. John
and the Allagash River Basins. Ice jam potential is over
for the 2024 season on all other river basins.

The potential for open water flooding is Above Normal across
Downeast, East-Central Maine, Bangor Region, Moosehead Region and
into Eastern Aroostook County including the Aroostook River Basin.
The potential for open water flooding is Normal across the far
North Woods, St. John, Allagash & Fish River basins in Northern
Maine.

...LAKE ICE THICKNESS...
Ice thickness is extremely variable with recent warm spells
posing a serious risk to life. Do not venture onto the ice unless
you know the exact thickness. For more information on ice safety
visit the Maine Warden Service website www.maine.gov/ifw/fishing-
boating/fishing/ice-safety-tips.html

For the 2024 season the Winter/Spring Flood Outlook (ESF) will be
in graphical format on our website
www.weather.gov/car/springfloodoutlook

...CLIMATE GUIDANCE FROM NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...

Although El Nino has begun to weaken...we are still seeing its
influence manifested in very intense southern stream storm systems
that gather Gulf of Mexico moisture and then try to head up the east
coast. Another in this seemingly endless pattern of El Nino driven
storms is poised to ride northeast just east of Cape Cod over the
next few days...potentially bringing 1 to 3 inches of rainfall to
the area.

After that...it looks like early April 2024 will be characterized by
a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index. This should
promote a lot of upper level blocking downstream of New England in
the North Atlantic which will likely deflect cold air from Canada
southward into New England. At the same time...medium range
climate indices call for the Pacific North America (PNA) Index to
remain neutral to slightly positive. A positive PNA favors upper
level troughing across the southeastern United States. The
combination of a negative NAO and somewhat positive PNA does
increase the odds of east coast storminess. It remains to be seen
where exactly the upper level blocking sets up and whether it will
keep the coastal systems south and east of New England or allow
them far enough north to impact the southern and eastern portions
of New England. Also...with near normal temperatures expected in
early April...we may not be done with snow for this Winter.

The official National Weather Service 6 to 10 day Outlook for 1-5
April 2024 seems to agree with this overall theme as it leans near
normal for much of Maine with northern Maine temperatures could
be near to perhaps a tad above normal. Precipitation during the
same time period is leaning above normal across all of New England.

So...it does seem active weather will continue as we transition from
March into early April 2024.

$$
Sinko


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