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000
FXUS63 KDDC 150708
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
208 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...Updated Short/Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong south winds expected Monday, gusting 40-50 mph.

- Scattered thunderstorms Monday evening and Monday night. Some
  storms severe with large hail and damaging winds.

- Intense northwest winds and blowing dust Tuesday.

- Two cold fronts are expected, one on Thursday and another on
  Saturday, bringing much cooler air.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

A quiet night was in progress across SW KS, with infrared
satellite imagery depicting a clear sky, and surface
observations showing light southeast winds. The anticipated lee
cyclogenesis will get underway over eastern Colorado around
sunrise, at which time southeast winds will begin to increase
some. Surface observations also reveal dewpoints well into the
60s across Oklahoma, and some of this moisture will begin
entering SW KS through daybreak. Southeast winds and moisture
advection will again hold temperatures above 50 at most
locations.

Closed midlevel cyclone near Grand Canyon, Arizona at 7 am
Monday will move east through Monday, ending up centered over
central Colorado at 7 pm Monday. This synoptic evolution will
incite strong lee cyclogenesis, with 00z NAM depicting a 987 mb
surface low in the vicinity of Goodland around 7 pm. South winds
will ramp up in response, with gusts of 40-50 mph common after
10 am through the afternoon. Winds and wind gusts are expected
to remain below high wind warning criteria, but this will be
watched carefully by today`s day shift. Areas of blowing dust
were maintained, particularly western zones where parched dry
topsoils will combine with SWly downslope. Expect winds to
average SWly west of US 283, and SEly east of US 283. As such,
the dryline will sharpen rapidly through the afternoon. This
will easily be the strongest dryline we have seen this young
spring season, with dewpoints near 0 near the Colorado border,
ranging to the mid 60s near Barber county. 00z NAM builds strong
instability east of the dryline through the afternoon, with MU
CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg expected over the eastern half of SW
KS by 5-7 pm. This airmass will not only be unstable, but also
strongly sheared with high SRH, supportive of intense
supercells. Forecast soundings are impressive, but confidence of
a storm developing before 7 pm to utilize this pristine
supercell environment is very low. CAMs are very resistant to
developing thunderstorms, with convergence on the dryline rather
poor, and the unstable boundary layer strongly capped by an
intense elevated mixed layer. Should an updraft be able to
develop on the dryline and mature in this environment, high end
severe weather would result, but this is a very high potential,
very low probability scenario. Temperatures have overperformed
over the warmest guidance over the past 2 days (thanks in part
to dry topsoils), and this trend will continue Monday, with
little thermal change at 850 mb. Upper 80s and lower 90s are
expected once again at 5 pm.

After 7 pm Monday evening, the parent midlevel closed cyclone will
make eastward progress, expected to be near Baca county, Colorado
by midnight. The sharp dryline will retreat westward quickly
for about 3 hours this evening, probably making it back to about
US 83, pulled by strong low pressure NW of SW KS. 00z NAM shows
this evolution nicely through its instability fields, with MU
CAPE near 3000 J/kg along US 83 by 10 pm. Again, if an isolated
supercell can develop between 7-10 pm, very large hail and
tornado potential would be realized, but the expectation is the
cap will hold until after 10 pm. Several CAMs, with support from
global models such as 00z ECMWF, develop thunderstorms rapidly
between 10 pm and 1 am, as cold advection at 500 mb finally
allows updrafts to grow. Thinking is this will be a very rapid
process, with thunderstorms taking on a linear configuration
quickly around midnight, then exiting the CWA around 4 am. Large
hail and damaging winds are expected from these storms
overnight, and tornadoes will be possible, with QLCS spinups
probable in the SRH-rich environment. In summary, we will be
watching closely through this afternoon and tonight for any
discrete supercell development, in which case high end
hail/tornado risk would ensue, but the expectation is currently
for a quiet evening through 10 pm, then a squall line with lower
grade wind/hail late tonight. Per coordination with SPC, severe
probability has been increased to the level 3/enhanced category
for the northeast zones tonight, where the forced squall line
is most likely. Closed low is expected to strengthen to near 546
dm near Wakeeney by 7 am Tuesday, with elevated winds veering
SWly through sunrise.

Intense northwest winds are expected Tuesday, on the backside
of the departing cyclone. Followed a slightly reduced version
of the 90%ile of the NBM for the wind grids, with the strongest
winds expected on the higher terrain along and west of the
preferred US 83 corridor. Gusts to near high wind warning
criteria (60 mph) are currently in the grids for areas from
Syracuse to Garden City to Scott City, where a high wind warning
will likely be required. Areas of blowing dust will continue.
Pops for wraparound rain showers were trimmed back some for the
northern zones, as felt most of this will remain north of I-70.
Cold air advection behind this system will trim 850 mb
temperatures down about 10C, but much of this will be cancelled
out by April sunshine and NWly downslope, keeping afternoon
temperatures in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Wednesday will be quiet under zonal flow aloft, with light and
variable winds, trending light southerly in the afternoon.
Afternoon temperatures remain pleasant in the upper 70s and
lower 80s.

The first of two strong cold fronts is expected Thursday
morning. NBM wind grids are already quite strong (near 25 mph
sustained) Thursday morning, so kept them as is. A few rain
showers are possible with this system near Hays and I-70 early
Thursday, but GEFS probability of even any measurable rainfall
(at least 0.01 inch) is only 10-20% for these northeast zones.
So not expecting much, with most of the rainfall northeast of
SW KS (yet again). Thursday will be dramatically cooler, with a
reduction of about 20 degrees over Wednesday, with temperatures
reduced to the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Several chilly mornings in the 30s start on Friday morning with
the first surface high pressure ridge nosing into SW KS. Current
indications suggest cloud cover will hold most locations safely
above freezing, in the mid to upper 30s, through sunrise
Friday. North winds Thursday will trend easterly Friday, keeping
temperatures cool. Models show continuity showing the second,
stronger cold front arriving Saturday morning. Northeast winds
will be again be strong, stronger than current long range NBM
projections, with strong cold advection. This cold airmass
appears impressively cold for late April, with ensembles placing
a 1040 mb surface anticyclone over Montana 7 am Saturday. A
period of light rain is possible with the frontal passage early
Saturday, but again QPF will be limited. Saturday is expected to
be unseasonably cold, with non-diurnal temperature curves
downward possible in the afternoon. 00Z ECMWF/EPS show 850 mb
temperatures falling to near 0C Saturday afternoon, which would
only support afternoon temperatures in the upper 40s to near 50.
Both Saturday and Sunday mornings will feature temperatures in
the lower to mid 30s, but early indications are cloud cover will
prevent damaging freezes for most locations. A strong 1032 mb
ridge axis is expected Sunday morning, perhaps our coldest
morning, when 00z EPS shows 30% probability of temperatures less
than 32 across the NW zones.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR will continue through this TAF cycle. Light SE winds will
prevail through 15z Mon. After 15z Mon, strong south winds will
impact aviation operations at all airports, gusting 35-40 kts.
Limited reductions in visibility are expected in blowing dust
at/near GCK/LBL, but left out of this set of TAFs. All airports
will remain dry through 00z Tue. Rapid development of
thunderstorms is probable during the 03-06z Tue time frame, in
the vicinity of DDC/HYS along the dryline. Confidence is only
high enough to included a CB/VCTS mention at the end of the
DDC/HYS TAFs for now.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /noon MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /8
PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-
084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner