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000
FXUS63 KDDC 182031
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
331 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated Fire risk on Friday afternoon, especially west.

- Rain chances (40-60%) return Friday night into early
  Saturday.

- Elevated to near critical fire risk expected Monday Afternoon.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Temperatures will get cold overnight, with many models
supporting low 30s in the far western counties, to around 40
degrees in the warmest area of the forecast area (Barber and
Pratt counties). Although temperatures might reach or even
exceed colder than freezing out around Hamilton county, the
climatological average last freeze hasn’t been quite reached yet
in the western sections of the forecast area. Additionally, in
the eastern counties where the average frost and freeze
dates have been reached, the clouds that are going to spill in
from the south overnight will preclude any frost headlines
Tonight as temperatures plummet into the mid and upper 30s.
With high pressure setting into the Central Plains, winds will
veer overnight becoming light before settling on a light to
breezy southeast trajectory on Friday afternoon (light around
Stafford and more breezy/gusty around Elkhart). Clouds and cold
advection limiting the highs to the 50s across most of the area
this afternoon despite late afternoon clouds breaking up will be
followed by warmer 60s on Friday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Friday night gets interesting as the NBM and forecast slight
small precipitation chances (20% south to 55 % north) as a weak
wave ejects from the Rockies interacting with a colder airmass
over the central Plains. A lack of instability will result in
mainly rain vs. thunderstorms. The wave and reinforcing cold
front will lead to a cooler day yet on Saturday where potential
exists for the highs not to exceed the 40s in the west central
Kansas counties. Still more probable are 50s over most of the
area for afternoon highs under plenty of residual cloud cover
that might linger into much of Sunday. Again near freezing to
possible freezing temps in the far west are expected for
Saturday morning. With clearing afternoon sky and increased
insolation Sunday afternoon, temperatures should warm back up
into the 60s, which most of the models are in agreement on; as
well as in agreement on Monday’s intense warmup back into the
80s most everywhere west of a Wakeeney-Meade line. A warm
frontal boundary (return of steep low level lapse rates and warm
advection/southerly flow) in the general area is the likely
impetus for potential low probability (20-40% chance)
thunderstorms in the late Monday into Tuesday timeframe.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Gusty north winds will gradually lose momentum this afternoon
as the surface pressure gradient weakens and the surface
pressure increases. Still, through mid afternoon expect gusts in
excess of 30 knots at DDC and HYS while the gusts might be a
bit weaker at GCK and LBL. A marked drop off in wind speeds will
be most noticeable after about 00 UTC (LAMP guidance drops the
sustained wind speed to an average 10-15 knots with no gusts at
all terminals.

Clouds-wise, the GOES satellite is showing some thinning
already while area METARs have generally reported about
1500-2000 ft ceilings, with the exception of HYS which has
already scattered out. The other sites will also scatter out as
the afternoon wears on.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Fire weather risk is generally limited this afternoon as the
cooler temperatures have capped the relative humidity from
falling below the 40s and 30 percent ranges. That will change
on Friday afternoon as the temperatures reach back into the 60s.
Any gusts into the 20s will result in some elevated fire
weather conditions as relative humidity values drop into the 20
to 30 percent range. Fires can escape control more easily and
become difficult to contain.

Monday may bring back the elevated to near critical conditions
in the western counties.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
FIRE WEATHER...Russell