Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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477 FXUS63 KDDC 011014 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 514 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and early this evening. Hail larger than 2" and strong gusty winds will be the main hazards but isolated tornadoes can not be completely ruled out. - Elevated to near critical fire risk possible this afternoon west of Meade near the Oklahoma border. - Thunderstorm chances will be possible almost each day across some part of southwest Kansas from today through Monday. - It appears that the best chance for some accumulating rainfall for southwest Kansas will be Friday night. There is a 30-50% chance of 24-hour precipitation of >0.25 ending at 1 pm Saturday. Gusty winds and hail up to size quarters will also be possible from a few of the stronger storms && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 A 500mb upper low located over Montana and Idaho earlier this Wednesday morning will move into the Northern Rockies on Thursday and then out into the northern Plains on Friday. Ensembles remain in good agreement with previous runs in moving two more upper-level troughs around this slow moving upper low over the next 48 to 60 hours. Each system will take a similar track, moving from the Pacific Northwest to around the Four Corners region and then out into the plains. Our next in the series of upper level systems was exiting the Pacific Northwest and approaching the Four Corners region. As this system approaches today, the east to southeast wind will continue to draw more humid air in the lower levels back into southwest Kansas as surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the Rockies. As this occurs, the surface boundary located just south of the Oklahoma border will begin to slowly lift northward back into southwest Kansas during the day. How far north this boundary will move today will be key to when and where the chance for severe weather will occur later today across southwest and south central Kansas. As of 2 am this Wednesday morning, confidence is high (>80%) that this front will not move as far north as what the models indicated last night, but confidence is low (<30%) on exactly how far it will move into southwest Kansas today. The main reason for the low confidence is is the uncertainty of how deep our layer of low level moisture will be north of this boundary between 12z and 18z today and what the impact of the overnight convection across northern Oklahoma might have. In addition, it still looks like there will be a chance for some elevated convection later this morning, given the 850mb-700mb moisture and warm air advection developing near the northern edge of the mid level warm layer that will be moving northward towards the Nebraska border. Given the latest CAMS the best chance for this elevated morning convection will be near and north of the I-70 corridor and east of a Hays to Coldwater line. Should we get some convection early this morning, then the potential exists that a few of these storms may be capable of producing hail up to around one inch. As elevated convection ends around noon, the next round of severe weather potential will be focused along and east of a dryline and near a warm front. The dry line will extend south of a warm front, across southwest Kansas and into northwest Oklahoma. At this time given the low confidence on where these boundaries will be late day have decided to use the majority of the CAMS as a guide. Based on this the dryline will be the to be east of Highway 283 and the warm front will be located somewhere between Kinsley and Hays. Also, given the morning clouds limiting the warmup today and the forecast 700 mb temperatures of around 9C, it appears that if we do get some convection to develop then these may be more isolated to widely scattered then what the current CAMS suggest. Forecast shear today suggests discrete supercells possible, if storms develop, along the dryline with more linear mode being possible along the warm front today. Given this even if it turns out that we only get a few isolated storms today...any storm that does develop will be in a favorable environment to produce very large hail (>2) and strong gusty winds. An isolated tornado or two also cannot be ruled out near our dryline/warm front given the enhanced low level shear late day/early evening. Low confidence of where the warm front will be this afternoon be will not only impact the late day storm chances but it will also impact temperatures. Areas north of the warm front will see afternoon temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s. South of this front, it will be another warm afternoon with highs in the 80s. Also south of this warm front the afternoon humidity values will fall back into the 15 to 25 percent range during the afternoon west Meade. These low humidity values and developing gusty southwest wind late day will create elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. As these storms move into central Kansas overnight, a cold front will cross southwest Kansas between midnight and 7 am as the upper-level trough exits the Central Rockies and moves out into the West Central High Plains. This will result in scattered convection lingering through Thursday afternoon. This area of possible convection during the day is not expected to be severe, but strong thunderstorms, some capable of producing penny-sized hail and wind gusts up to 55 mph, will be possible. Even with this said, I am not totally able to rule out an isolated quarter sized hail or 60 mph wind gust east of Highway 183. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Thursday night and Friday, the upper level trough will lift north into the Northern Plains, and this will be quickly followed by our next upper level system. The latest short range models currently have this upper trough located over the Central Rockies by 18z Friday. As this next system follows a similar track as the previous upper wave, there will be another opportunity for precipitation for all of southwest Kansas as convection is forecast to develop late day across northeast Colorado and then spread east into western Kansas along a mid level baroclinic zone/area of 0-1km thetae advection. This Friday night system may be of interest measurable precipitation given that the latest ensemble means were showing a 30-50% chance of 24-hour precipitation of >0.25 ending at 1 pm Saturday and a 20-30% chance of 24-hour precipitation of >0.5. Granted, this chance is not very high, but it is better than what we have seen over the past 3-4 weeks. Along with this chance for widespread precipitation the a few of the stronger storms early Friday night will be capable of producing gusty winds and hail up to the size of quarters. Once this Friday night system lifts northeast, some weak ridging aloft crosses western Kansas as the upper low over the Northern Plains moves into Canada. This will allow for a brief break in the precipitation chances, but the chance for thunderstorms will return Saturday night and then continue through Monday as our next, more significant, upper level low/trough exits the eastern Pacific and begins to move across the western United States towards the Central Plains. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 500 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 We are continuing to monitor the low clouds spreading into southwest Kansas as the east southeast flow continues. BUFR soundings and NBM guidance continues to show ceilings lowering into the 500 to 1500ft AGL between 12z and 15z but looking and observation upstream I am becoming a little concerned that these low ceilings might be too low. At this time given that the potential is still there will continue to follow guidance with a period of IFR ceilings but the will have a shorter duration that what the models suggest. These low clouds will give way to VFR conditions towards 18z as a warm front moves north across southwest Kansas. How far north this warm front will move is unclear but currently it appears that this surface boundary will be north of Dodge City but south of Garden City and Hays. Gusty south southwest winds will develop during the afternoon south of this warm front. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burgert LONG TERM...Burgert AVIATION...Burgert