Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 222010
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
310 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions are expected tonight and Saturday.

- Active weather is expected again Sunday through Tuesday
  morning, with widespread precipitation and strong winds.

- Very windy conditions are possible late Sunday night and
  Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Tonight, dry conditions are forecast as the system that dumped
a swath of 4 to 8+ inches of snow across parts of eastern Iowa
and northwest Illinois moves off into the Great Lakes region.
Skies will clear out late tonight and overnight as high pressure
builds in from the northwest. Lows will be in the teens north
of I 80 over the fresh snow, with 20s south of I 80. Brisk
northerly winds will make it feel even colder and more like the
single digits and teens overnight and early Saturday.

Saturday, morning sun will give way to increasing cloud cover from
the west during the afternoon ahead of our next weather-maker. NNE
winds will diminish through the day and become more easterly by late
afternoon. Temperatures over the snow, roughly north of I 80, will
be in the mid and upper 30s, while to the south highs reach the low
to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Saturday night, the first wing of elevated return flow/WAA aloft
still on track to sweep acrs the CWA with southwesterly LLJ flow Sat
night into early Sunday morning. This wing will look to produce a
band of light snow of a dusting up to half inch across the northwest
third to half of the DVN CWA. After a brief lull, POPS increase
across the NW and Western CWA as a strong storm system strengthens
over western Kansas. This would be a snow north of I 80, and a rain
snow mix south. This mix will lift north through the day and become
all rain by late PM across the CWA. The POPS are mainly confined to
areas NW of a line from Memphis to Freeport.

Sunday night, ESE winds will really begin to ramp up as the system
gets closer and pressure gradient tightens. Gusts overnight will be
in the 30 to 40 MPH range, as rain chances spread east of the MS
River. Likely to categorical POPs are along and west of the river.
The forecast now has all rain for the sunday evening and overnight
period.

Monday, rainy and windy conditions will be the story as the models
agree in bringing the low northward across western IA. This period
will be quite windy and may warrant issuing a wind advisory, with
gusts in the 40 to 50 MPH range. Some thunder will also be possible
especially west of the river. Highs will be in the upper 50s to mid
60s. A dry slot works in Monday night as the low moves into Lake
Superior and rain chances push east. The higher winds should slacken
off during Monday evening, but remain gusty through Tuesday
switching to the SW and W. At this time, the higher rain areas will
be west of the area and southeast.

Dry conditions are expected late next week with a warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Snow and rain is ending in Iowa and will end in western Illinois
by 1 PM. Though visibility will remain above 6 miles this
afternoon, lower cigs are expected to continue through the early
evening hours, before dry air arrives with north winds of 12 to
25kts. VFR conditions are expected tonight and Saturday.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...Ervin


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