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000
FXUS64 KEWX 262007
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
307 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Key Point

-Isolated strong to severe storms possible Saturday night with large
hail and damaging winds possible.

An upper level trough covers the western half of the country. Strong
southeasterly flow in the boundary layer is keeping a warm, moist
airmass in place over South Central Texas. Temperatures this
afternoon range from the middle 70s to near 90 and dewpoints are in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. A dryline is just moving into Val Verde
County. The upper trough will move slowly toward the east during
this period. The dryline will shift back toward the west tonight.
This will keep our weather dry tonight. With strong southeasterly
flow continuing skies will be mostly cloudy and temperatures will be
warm. Lows Saturday will be mostly n the 70s. The dryline will move
back eastward again during the day Saturday reaching our western area
by late afternoon. This will only provide enough lift for isolated
showers and thunderstorms. Most of the area will stay dry. Tomorrow
night a shortwave trough will move through the upper pattern and
push the dryline farther east. This will bring good chances for
showers and thunderstorm. POPs will increase over the northwest
during the evening and spread south and east after midnight. The
surface boundary will move into a warm, moist airmass with high CAPE
and moderate deep layer vertical shear. Strong to sever storms will
be possible. The greatest threat will be large hail with steep mid-
level lapse rates, but damaging winds gusts and tornadoes are also
possible. The best timing looks like late evening out west, after
midnight I-35, and early Sunday morning Coastal Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Incoming 12Z model data continues to indicate a line of showers and
thunderstorms along a cold front will be moving across the Hill
Country and southern Edwards Plateau early Sunday morning. The cold
front is not expected to make much eastward progress during the
daytime hours on Sunday and as convection moves ahead of the front, a
gradual weakening trend is expected as activity moves into the I-35
corridor. With the convection expected to weaken, the threat for
severe weather is expected to gradually decrease through Sunday
morning. For now, it appears the better chance for strong to severe
storms will remain confined to areas west of the I-35 corridor, where
the Storm Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5)
for severe storms. Farther east for our counties along the I-35
corridor, the risk drops into the Marginal category (Level 1 of 5).
All modes of severe weather will be possible, including hail, high
winds and tornadoes. For the afternoon hours, the higher rain chances
will shift eastward, mainly east of the I-35/I-37 corridors. Low-
level moisture surges back westward Sunday night, with a continued
low chance for showers and storms from I-35 eastward.

Some weak upper disturbances moving in from the southwest continue on
Monday and Tuesday. We will keep a fairly low chance (20-40%) for
rain in the forecast, mainly for the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and
coastal plains. Strong to severe storms don`t appear favored at this
time, but given the time of year, we will continue to monitor the
setup. A stronger upper level system is expected to move in late
Wednesday or early Thursday and this may help boost the coverage of
shower and thunderstorm activity. The medium range operational models
continue to show some agreement in showing a fairly strong front
moving in from the north sometime early Friday. If models remain in
good agreement, we will need to increase our rain chances for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

There are a few light showers around this afternoon and we may
continue to see some showers through the afternoon. The San Antonio
area is still under MVFR ceilings, but these should lift within the
next hour or so. Southerly to southeasterly winds winds will continue
around 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts this afternoon an evening.
Ceilings will lower again tonight. There is a small chance for
showers or thunderstorms Saturday morning, but the probability is too
low to include in the TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              81  71  86  69 /  40  10  20  60
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  81  70  85  68 /  40  10  20  50
New Braunfels Muni Airport     84  71  87  70 /  40  10  10  40
Burnet Muni Airport            80  70  82  66 /  40  10  30  80
Del Rio Intl Airport           96  74  98  68 /   0  10  10  50
Georgetown Muni Airport        80  70  84  67 /  40  10  30  70
Hondo Muni Airport             87  71  90  67 /  20  10  20  60
San Marcos Muni Airport        82  70  86  68 /  40  10  10  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   82  73  85  73 /  30  10  10  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       84  71  86  69 /  40  10  10  50
Stinson Muni Airport           86  73  88  70 /  40  10  10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...05