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000
FNUS72 KFFC 250911
FWSFFC

Spot Forecast for Turkey Beard RX...USFS
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
511 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1400 EDT on April 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Good morning!

The biggest forecast challenge today will be winds -- wind speeds
are expected to remain light through the day with values averaging
less than 5 MPH and direction will be variable.

Skies are clear this morning but increasing cloud cover 40-60%
coverage can be expected by late afternoon into the evening.
Forecast minimum relative humidity values will range from 25% to
30% but certainly possible values dip below 25% for a few hours
this afternoon. We will continue to monitor trends through the
morning considering how 10hr fuels faired yesterday. As previous
stated, winds will largely be light (2-5 MPH) and variable
through the day and into tonight. Transport wind speeds will range
from 4-6 MPH thus resulting in less than ideal smoke dispersion.
Tonight the weak frontal boundary that moved through the area
yesterday, will lift back north and may produce some additional
light rain or sprinkles at/near the burn site early Friday
morning. Accumulations expected to be less than a hundredth of an
inch.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 3 to 6 mph shifting to the west
                    around 5 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (22100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
ADI.................2 to 32.
CEILING (KFT).......25.

TIME (EDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........12  17  30  39
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............74  75  75  75
RH..............27  27  26  26
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  W
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.8   8   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1
Transp wind dir.NW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.5   5   5   5
ADI.............31  32  32  31
Vrate kt-ft/1K..22  22  22  21
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 3 to 5 mph shifting to the north
                    around 3 mph early in the evening, then
                    shifting to the east 3 to 5 mph in the late
                    evening and overnight shifting to the southeast
                    around 5 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (16100 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (600 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
ADI.................2 to 16.
CEILING (KFT).......25 decreasing to 15.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........43  64  64  63  64  60  58  56  58  77  70  73
Weather cov.....                                SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............74  72  67  65  64  62  61  61  60  59  58  59
RH..............27  27  40  44  45  45  47  48  50  53  54  55
20 FT wind dir..W   NW  N   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  N   N   SE
20 FT wind spd..3   3   0   2   2   3   2   2   3   0   0   3
20 FT wind gust.7   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...2.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Transp wind dir.W   NW  N   N   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.5   3   3   3   3   3   3   5   5   5   5   5
ADI.............16  3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..16  6   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  20  20  15

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 6 to 12 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 14 mph increasing to south 21 to
                    28 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (58100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
ADI.................3 early in the morning increasing to 55 in the
                    afternoon.
CEILING (KFT).......12 decreasing to 3.0.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........80  73  82  81  80  78  71  70  68  65  60  57
Weather cov.....SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............57  58  59  61  65  67  68  70  72  73  74  75
RH..............59  59  63  61  55  53  51  49  47  46  45  45
20 FT wind dir..SE  E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   6   7   10  12  12  12  12  12  12
20 FT wind gust.6   6   7   10  13  18  20  20  22  22  22  21
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.7 2.9
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.5   5   7   14  21  26  28  26  25  24  24  23
ADI.............3   5   6   11  23  37  43  49  46  49  54  55
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1   1   2   8   19  25  29  36  39  44  53  58
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR
Ceiling (kft)...12  8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.5

$$
Forecaster...Wyatt
Requested by...Jake Hauser
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412020.0/FFC
.DELDT 04/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jake.hauser@usda.gov