Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 271058
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
558 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
No changes on timing of storms or severe threat from late
afternoon through mid evening today. Below discussion looks on
track.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
/Today & Thursday/

Today will being dry and cool, as broad high pressure continues
it`s hold over the area with lows mid 30s to mid 40s at sunrise.
Strong shortwave energy will rotating southeast across the western
part of the state with cyclogenesis already noted just east of
the TX/NM border area near Lubbock, TX. Broad, cyclonic flow
aloft continues today over the state today into this evening,
before a a strong 180-200kt upper jet swinging through the base of
the main longwave trough late today from South TX into the TX
Coastal Bend and western GoM. This will draw the surface low and
associated surface trough southeast across the Colorado River
Valley areas of western Central Texas this afternoon and early
evening. Later tonight into Thursday, we`ll be more under the
influence of drier northwest flow aloft, as the aforementioned
upper jet max departs downstream over the Lower Mississippi
Valley/Central Gulf Coast region. In response, the surface low and
associated trough will drop into Central and South-Central TX by
midnight and wash out, as better upper support continues lifting
east of the area.

Outside of some sporadic cirrus across the region into early
afternoon, daytime heating will push highs well into the 60s
across western North Texas into Central TX by this afternoon. Low
level moisture will be on the meager side, however, cold 500mb
temperatures within the axis of the broader scale longwave trough
will support some modest SB/MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/K just west of
I-35 and south of I-20 into Central TX with the surface low/trough
acting as a weak surface focus for convergence with increasing
large-scale and broad ageostrophic ascent north of the upper jet
maximum and a strong mid level impulse lifting northeast toward
the CWA right at peak heating.

Most CAMs continue to show the possibility of isolated-scattered,
discrete storms developing to the E-NE of both the surface low
and approaching mid level disturbance which with the cold air
aloft within the broad upper trough, will result in higher values
of MUCAPE and lapse rates (8-8.5 deg C/km) aloft. Combined with
northwesterly deep layer flow of 40-50 kts, there will be a good
balance of instability and shear for a few supercellular storms
with strong mid level mesocyclones/deep updrafts capable of
producing large hail and localized damaging winds from mid-
afternoon west of I-35 to mid evening...mainly across eastern
Central Texas with the southeasterly steering currents for these
types of high-based storms. The high-based nature of storms due to
very dry low level air combined with veered 0-1km flow of less
than 10 kts will keep the tornado threat near zero.

Otherwise, as the system continues moving east late tonight into
Thursday, the dry northwest flow aloft will result in mostly sunny
skies with winds southerly winds returning around 10 mph. With no
thermal advection and expected mid level heights, Thursday`s high
temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s with a very
pleasant afternoon anticipated.

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 343 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/
Update:
/Friday & This Weekend Into Early Next Week/

Nothing to really add to the previous long term discussion below
other than low (20%-30%) for showers and elevated thunderstorms
will continue primarily east of I-35 thanks to a broad, positive-
tilted longwave trough remaining near and west of our forecast
areas.

In addition, some very valuable information at the end of this
last discussion below with regard to our expected solar eclipse
that occurs in about 12 days from now on Monday, April 8th 2024.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
/Wednesday Night Onward/

Any ongoing showers and storms mentioned in the short term
discussion will come to an end Wednesday night, with rain-free
conditions expected Thursday through the weekend. Broad upper-
level ridging will expand across the Central U.S. and bring
warming temperatures into the weekend. Thursday`s highs will still
be mild however, reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s as southerly
flow gradually returns to the area. Widespread readings in the
70s Friday will then shift to the 80s Saturday through Monday as
ridging remains overhead. Other than the warming trend, a tightened
surface pressure gradient Friday will result in breezy conditions.

An upper level low will drop southward along the West Coast late in
the weekend and enter the Desert Southwest early next week. This
will bring the region`s next chance for showers and storms late
Monday into early Tuesday, as a strong cold front moves through.

Looking Ahead to the Eclipse:
/Week after Next/

The April 8th Total Solar Eclipse is within range of extended
forecast guidance as we`re now less than two weeks out. It`s
important to note that this is still outside of the range of our
official public forecast, and using this guidance to pin down a
cloud cover forecast for one specific hour this far out is not
useful as model guidance just isn`t that skillful. Keep in mind
ensembles are also under dispersed, so these probabilities aren`t
the same as actual Vegas odds as they aren`t calibrated. HOWEVER,
we can glean some sort of information from looking at ensemble
guidance:

-- 40-60% of the GEFS/GEPS members depict less than 25 percent
  cloud cover (e.g., sunny to mostly sunny skies) at the time of
  the eclipse across North & Central Texas. However, ~20% of the
  members also show greater than 80% mean cloud cover at this same
  time.

-- April in Texas is no stranger to weather systems. The key
  will be watching to see if the systems are timed well enough to
  allow for good viewing conditions on April 8th. Currently, most
  members show a system will be exiting to the east with 20-40% of
  all ensemble members (CMC/GEPS/GEFS) showing precipitation
  around eclipse time across the region.

Bottom Line: While most members favor good viewing conditions at
this point, the timing of the systems will likely be the main
thing to watch as we approach the eclipse, and there are still
many unknowns this far out.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
Update:
/12z TAFs/

Below 06z TAF discussion still looks good on trends and timing of
VCTS/CB between 23z-03z at D10 airports and Waco, as well as winds
and speeds through tonight. Some slight adjustments will likely
need to be made as the convective event nears in the 18z/21z
TAF forecasts.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
/06z TAFs/

Challenges will include low TSRA chances this afternoon through
mid evening, otherwise VFR with sporadic SCT-BKN high clouds with
FEW-SCT mid cloud beginning later this morning. The main window
for showers and storms will be from 22z through 03z across both
the D10 DFW airports and Waco Regional Airport.

With uncertainty regarding TS development, location, and actual
movement currently, I will maintain a VCTS/CB period as noted
above and let later terminal forecasts adjust as the details
become more clear.

Light northerly winds around 5 kts will become E/SE 8-11 today
(variably gusty in and near storms late in the day), then backing
around to a light NE around 5 kts later tonight.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  45  71  54  76 /  20  30   0   0   0
Waco                66  43  73  52  76 /  20  30   0   0   0
Paris               61  39  68  50  75 /  10   5   0   0   0
Denton              63  40  70  53  75 /  20  20   0   0   0
McKinney            62  41  70  53  74 /  10  20   0   0   0
Dallas              65  44  71  55  76 /  20  30   0   0   0
Terrell             63  42  70  53  75 /  10  30   0   0   0
Corsicana           66  44  72  54  76 /  10  30   0   0   0
Temple              67  45  74  53  77 /  20  30   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       66  41  72  52  77 /  30  20   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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