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000
FNUS75 KGJT 200104
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Deer Mesa Rx...Norwood Fire Protection District
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
704 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on April 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A weak disturbance passes over the area on Saturday
resulting in isolated showers and afternoon thunderstorms over
surrounding higher terrain. The potential for showers at the fire
site is low and wetting rain is even less likely. However, gusty
outflow winds from showers and/or thunderstorms, even at some
distance, is likely to result in gusty and unpredictable winds.
Lighter west winds are expected Sunday with quiet weather
returning to the region, though deep mixing will allow for at
least good smoke dispersal during the afternoon.


.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers and a slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent.
Max temperature.....65-70.
Min humidity........17-22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Downvalley 3 to 6 mph through 1000, then
                    becoming northwest 8 to 13 mph with gusts to
                    25 mph by 1300. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Becoming fair by 1100, then increasing to
                    excellent by 1400.
Haines Index........4 or low.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 10800 ft AGL at peak heating.
Transport winds.....West 12 mph increasing to 22 mph in the
                    afternoon.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....35-40.
Max humidity........53-58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 8 to 13 mph becoming downvalley
                    3 to 6 mph by 2200.
Smoke dispersal.....Decreasing to poor (3000 knot-ft) overnight.
Haines Index........4 or low.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......Decreasing to 500 ft AGL overnight.
Transport winds.....North 20 mph becoming east 10 mph overnight.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....67-72.
Min humidity........10-15 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Downslope winds 3 to 6 mph shifting to the
                    west and increasing to 5 to 10 mph by 1200.
Smoke dispersal.....Becoming fair by 1100, then good in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 8800 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the
                    afternoon.

$$

Forecaster...Norv Larson
Requested by...Zane Truelock
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411459.0/GJT
.DELDT 04/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL wildland@norwoodcofire.com