Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 280950
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
350 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions
  across far eastern Colorado this afternoon.

- Near critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions
  generally south of a line from Flagler, Colorado to Leoti,
  Kansas Sunday afternoon.

- 20%-50% chances for rain showers Sunday night and Monday with
  a return to below normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 325 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Today-tonight...cirrus clouds are anticipated to move across the
area from the west as short wave ridging moves over the area.
Presently, high temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 60s to
lower 70s which is represented by the amount of warming at 850mb
compared to yesterday and a blend of the better performing bias
corrected temperature grids. If the cirrus is thicker than currently
anticipated, high temperatures would need to be lowered.
Additionally, the current breezy wind forecast (winds from the
south) could be impacted as thicker cirrus could limit mixing and
thus lower the wind speed forecast. This could be offset by modest 3
hour pressure falls. Tonight, Low temperatures are forecast to be in
the lower to upper 30s.

Friday-Friday night...a cold front moves through the area, lowering
high temperatures into the lower 60s to lower 70s (coolest in Yuma,
warmest in Tribune/Leoti). Breezy north winds are possible, mainly
along and north of I-70. Low temperatures fall into the upper 20s to
lower 30s. There will also be a 20%-30% chance for light rain
showers up to around midnight, mainly across Yuma and Kit Carson
counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 238 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

The long-term will start off under a broad ridge that will allow for
the warming trend to continue through the weekend. In the evening
hours Saturday, a shortwave will move over the far northern portions
of the CWA and could  bring some showers to locations along and
north of U.S. Highway 34 between 0 and 12Z. PoPs are about 15% for
these showers.

By Sunday, high temperatures will range from the upper 60s to
potentially low 80s. The trade off is that RH values will drop into
the mid teens. Combined with southerly winds sustained around 20 kts
and gusting to 30+ kts in the afternoon hours, critical fire weather
conditions will likely (55%) occur for a brief period of time.
Prolonged (3+ hours) critical fire weather conditions cannot be
ruled out, but confidence is much lower (25%). The locations that
are expected to see critical fire weather conditions are primarily
west of Kansas Highway 25 and south of Interstate 70. There is
little (<10%) confidence that blowing dust will be an issue based on
current guidance, the winds do not seem strong enough.

Overnight Saturday and Sunday, low temperatures will be in the 30s.
There is also a chance (25%) for fog to form in the
eastern/northeastern portions of the CWA, mainly Saturday night, but
will also be possible (15%) Sunday. Cross sections are supporting
this by showing moist easterly flow with a low-level inversion.

Sunday evening is when the "fun" really begins as an upper-level
deep trough begins to impact the area from the northwest. The GFS,
CMC-NH, and ECMWF are still showing very different things in the mid
and upper-levels, but the track of the 850 mb low pressure system is
being highlighted to move close to the NE/KS border to the east
before taking a more northeasterly path.

Here`s what we do know:

Precipitation is likely (65%) from this feature, especially in the
northwestern portion of the CWA. PoPs taper off farther to the south.

Near the end of the event, gusty northerly winds will usher in cold
air.

What we don`t know:

How much precipitation will fall and where the majority of it will
fall.

What the main P-Type will be. With the very warm temperatures on
Sunday and potentially strong southerly inflow, we could have a
surface layer remain above freezing and see mostly rain. However,
there are multiple ways that this thin melting layer may disappear
leading to snow or a wintry mix.

Timing of precipitation is a big question too. Precipitation could
start as early as 21Z Sunday or as late as 6-12Z Monday. Ending
times are even more of an unknown. Precipitation may cease as early
as 21Z Monday or as late as 9-12Z Tuesday.

High temperatures are currently forecast to reach the 50s Monday and
Tuesday, which adds some merit to the potential of a mostly rain
event. Overnight low temperatures are predicted to drop into the mid
20s Monday night.

After the trough and the precipitation clear the area some time
Tuesday, a well defined ridge from the southwest will build in over
the Tri-State area. This will lead us to another warming trend that
will last through the rest of the period. By Thursday, temperatures
look to rebound back into the 70s. Overnight lows will also follow
this trend with 30s and low 40s expected for Wednesday and Thursday
nights.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A
southwest wind up to 10kts at taf issuance will back slightly to
the south, gusting up to 25kts or so from 20z-23z. Tonight,
winds begin the period from the south around 11kts, slowly
veering to the west-southwest at similar speeds.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A
southwest wind under 10kts at taf issuance will back slightly to
the south at similar speeds around 19z and continue through 23z.
after 00z, a south-southeast wind up to 11kts is anticipated.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...99


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