Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 221954
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
254 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Showers that were aloft earlier have finally reached the ground
over the Tennessee Valley, with measurable amounts of rainfall so
far. These showers were forming north and east of a developing
area of low pressure over the AR-LA-MS region. The showers covered
a good portion of the SE CONUS, from west of the Mississippi
Delta, this region, to much of NC, SC and GA. After temperatures
earlier warmed into the mid 60s to around 70 (when some of the
clouds briefly thinned this morning), 2 PM readings have cooled
into the upper 50s and lower 60s with ESE winds of 5-15 mph.

With the area of low pressure traversing the Deep South tonight,
have maintained high rain chances of 80-100%. With an intrusion
of some weak instability over our far southern areas (mainly east
of I-65), have left isolated (less than 25%) thunder chances in
for spots south of the Tennessee River. Lows should cool to around
50. NE winds 5-10 mph, will back more to the north towards
daybreak Sat in the 10-20 mph range.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Lingering showers early Saturday morning should fade from west to
east across our area. More direct sun should return in the
afternoon. Despite that, a northerly wind of 10-20 mph with some
stronger gusts will bring cooler air to the area. Thus high
temperatures will only rise to around 60. The steady winds will
continue Sat night, with lows cooling into the mid 30s. The winds
if they continue will help prevent frost from forming. Also if
temps cool a bit more, freezing conditions could occur; something
we will monitor as we go into the early days of this year`s
growing season.

Sunday should feature mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, with
warmer highs, into the mid/upper 60s. Normal high/lows then are
around 68/45 degrees. Not as cool Sun night with lows from the
lower 40s east to lower 50s west. With more clouds than sun, highs
on Monday should only warm into the mid 60s. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms return Mon night, as noted below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

A strong upper low will continue to shift into the Great Lakes
region Monday night into Tuesday, with its associated cold front
posed to push into the area Monday night into Tuesday. Given the
strong dynamics associated with this system, a threat for strong
to marginally severe thunderstorms may develop with the passage
of the cold front -- depending on how the thermodynamic
environment evolves ahead of the frontal passage. The threat for
showers and storms along the front will increase in NW Alabama
late Monday night into early Tuesday morning -- with the window
for the rest of the Tennessee Valley favoring the late morning
into portions of the afternoon. However, guidance continues to
trend a little slower with the frontal passage and would not be
shocked if a bulk of the shower/thunderstorm chances end up
trending more towards a Tuesday timeframe. Still a ways to go to
work out the details of this system -- but at the very least
medium/high chances for showers/storms (60-80%) and potentially
the threat for a least a few strong storms during this window.

Precipitation chances will taper off Tuesday evening/night and a
slightly cooler/drier air mass will push in for Wednesday and
Thursday as the base of the parent trough pushes across the Deep
South. Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s will be common
Wednesday, with low/mid 60s on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

An area of low pressure forming over the AR-LA-MS region will move
eastward, reaching northern GA by daybreak Sat. This system will
bring widespread showers to the area tonight. VFR conditions now
occurring across the area will deteriorate as we go into the late
afternoon and tonight. CIG/VSBY values should be reduced into the
MVFR range in the late afternoon, then IFR tonight through after
daybreak Sat AM. E-SE winds this afternoon in the 5-15kt range
should back towards the NE tonight. Winds should continue backing
more, becoming northerly and increasing into the 10-20kt range
with some higher gusts late in the TAF.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...RSB


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