Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
000
FXUS63 KICT 250804
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
304 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter weather minor impacts with snow/wind expected along
  the I-70 corridor west of Salina this afternoon through late
  this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Late cold season storm system to affect the area later today
through tonight with light snow accums and wind resulting in
minor travel concerns for portions of central Kansas. Dynamic
upper low will be slow to move east-northeast across the central
Plains the next 18-24 hours as the surface cold front merges
with the dry-line by late morning across south central Kansas.
Strong cold advection on stout north winds will overspread
central Kansas through late morning with falling temperatures
with southeast Kansas remaining much milder for one more day
with frontal passage not until later afternoon. Marginal
instability may reside across southeast Kansas prior to frontal
passage so will keep slight/modest PoPs there. If we get some
surface based redevelopment there this afternoon, there would be
adequate deep layer shear for a couple strong storms before
exiting stage right. Otherwise, the main short term focus will
be the return of a Winter-like feel across the rest of the area
during the day and into the evening. Prefer the stronger/slower
NAM solution which develops a modest trowal and deformation zone
where thermal profiles will support several hours of light to
perhaps moderate snow over portions of central Kansas later
today through early tonight. While relatively warmer surface
temperatures may limit initial accums, it seems plausible that
an inch or two of snow is possible with stronger north winds
creating minor travel impacts for this area either side of the
I-70 corridor. So will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for this
area for light snow accums and winds near advisory criteria.

Dry weather though unseasonably chilly for Tuesday and Wednesday
as we remain within a mean longwave upper trof across the
central conus. The upper flow becomes less amplified/more zonal
for the latter portion of the week with slight ridging aloft
across the area with temperatures much above climo by Friday and
Saturday.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Several concerns for aviation interests will make up the next 24
hours.

Thunderstorms have exited the area, but showers across central
and far southeast Kansas continue to linger. Also, MVFR cloud
cover has overspread much of the area. While low clouds should
clear out of most TAF sites by 12Z this morning, KGBD and KRSL
will likely keep MVFR cigs through the entirety of the TAF
period. A strong LLJ is causing widespread LLWS tonight, and
this should continue through 12Z until the LLJ weakens.

After 12Z, concerns shift towards an incoming strong cold front
that will cause winds to shift from southeasterly to northerly
as it passes through the area. Northerly wind gusts after
frontal passage will generally be in the range of 25-35 knots.
After 18Z, snow is expected to enter the area which may drop vis
below 2 miles at times across portions of central Kansas. Lower
visibilities are very possible, and updates to this aspect of
the forecast may be necessary in future TAF issuances. Snow will
affect KRSL and KGBD first during the early afternoon hours,
and these sites will likely experience the most impacts from
wintry weather. During the evening hours, snow will spread
south and east, but its intensity should be on the decrease as
it impacts KHUT and KSLN by 00Z. It`s possible snow may affect
KICT, but there is some uncertainty with this aspect of the
forecast. It should be noted that any impacts this far south
will be limited should snow occur. Snow should gradually begin
departing eastward towards the end of the TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT
Tuesday for KSZ032-047.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT
Tuesday for KSZ033-048.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...JC


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.