891
FXUS63 KICT 132324
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
624 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers/isolated storm chances lingering this evening.

- Chance for storms Tuesday night through Thursday night.

- Trending warmer for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A mid/upper trough over the region is progged to drift eastward
tonight with any lingering light precipitation ending from west to
east early in the period. Clearing will happen for central and
western Kansas while some low clouds may linger for the Flint Hills
and much of southeast Kansas. As a narrow sfc ridge axis translates
into central KS toward morning on Tue we could see some transient
fog formation but confidence in how widespread this will become
remains fairly low.

Tue...Shortwave mid/upper ridging will overspread the area on Tue
with tranquil weather anticipated. Light southeast winds will return
from west to east with mild temperatures in the 70s/around 80. A
shortwave trough over the Northern Rockies is progged to dig south
and eastward into the Central Plains Tue night bringing another
round of showers and thunderstorms to the area. The higher
probables will remain mainly west of I-135 Tue night.

Wed-Thu...A warm front is progged to sharpen across southern Kansas
on Wed and could become a focus for afternoon showers and storms.
Some locations across parts of south central KS could see highs
climb into the 80s while most locations top out in the 70s. Some
modest mid-lvl flow coupled with steep lapse rates may allow for a
few strong or severe storms over mainly southern Kansas through the
evening hours. As we move into Thu, the effective front will likely
be south of the area but some modest pops were maintained early in
the period. Seasonable temperatures are anticipated with highs in
the mid 70s for most areas.

Fri-Mon...Mid/upper ridging will return on Fri bringing a return to
dry weather conditions and above normal temperatures. Another
frontal boundary will be driven southward into the area on Sat
providing a focus for showers and storms. Above normal temperatures
are expected to persist over the weekend and into early next week. An
active pattern may return as we move into the beginning of next week
with the potential for severe weather returning to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A few lingering showers and storms continue to fester across
much of the area. Any impacts to TAF sites through 02-03Z should
be brief. Rain chances are expected to dwindle after 03Z, and
sites across central and south-central Kansas will likely return
to VFR conditions.

Meanwhile, along and east of the Flint Hills, MVFR to IFR cigs
are expected to build in after 06Z and linger through much of
the early morning hours on Tuesday. Ceilings should gradually
rise and diminish after 13Z, and VFR conditions are forecast to
resume thereafter through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...JC