685
FXUS61 KILN 110808
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
408 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will pass across the region today. High
pressure will build in behind this system and persist into
Monday. Low pressure will then approach from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface trough extending from western Michigan into central
Illinois will move into the area this morning and pass off to
the east early this afternoon. Showers ahead of this system have
been mostly concentrated across northern Indiana and points
northward. But some development is occurring further south and
expect this trend to continue. So coverage of showers will
extend further south with time as this translates east. Showers
will not last too long in any one location and rainfall amounts
will be relatively light. Cannot completely rule out some
embedded thunder, generally along and north of I-70.

Once the showers and trough pass, clouds will decrease but winds
will pick up with some gusts to around 30 mph. Highs will be
close to persistence in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will develop into the area through the period.
Winds will diminish in the early evening, but some clouds could
linger before finally clearing out after midnight. Thereafter,
atmosphere will be quite dry. Maybe there could be some late day
diurnal cumulus.

It will be a cool night with lows in the mid to upper 40s. But
highs will be trending warmer and reaching the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
After a dry start Sunday night and Monday morning under high
pressure, clouds will increase and a few showers and thunderstorms
may move in Monday afternoon ahead of low pressure advancing from
the west. As the low tracks to Southern Indiana on Tuesday, showers
and thunderstorms will become likely to categorical. Severe storms
appear unlikely due to a weak wind fields and modest instability.
The system is forecast to move to the East Coast on Wednesday,
providing diminishing chances for showers and storms. For Thursday
and Friday, weak disturbances interacting with an unstable airmass
may trigger a few more showers and storms.

Temperatures are forecast to be normal to above normal through the
period. Highs start in the mid 70s to low 80s Monday under warm
advection, before clouds, precip and cold advection cause readings
to retreat to the upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday and Wednesday.
Insolation and warm advection will allow a return to the mid and
upper 70s on Thursday and Friday.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR will prevail with primarily mid to high clouds at the start
of the period. A line of showers ahead of a surface trough will
push across the TAF sites between 11Z and 16Z. Most locations
will remain VFR, except the Columbus terminals where some
temporary MVFR conditions may occur.

With the passage of the trough, winds will veer to the west
northwest and strengthen. Some gusts to around 25 kt will occur
through the rest of the daytime period. Clouds will scatter.
Winds, both sustained and gusts, will decrease towards 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceiling and visibilities as well as
thunderstorms possible Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...