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000
FXUS63 KIWX 221045
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
645 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers Tuesday, turning cool Wednesday-Thursday with frost
  possible early Thursday morning

- Big warmup next weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Weak warm advection this morning will ramp this aftn as flow veers
swrly ahead of potent nrn stream wave ovr wrn MB attm. This wave and
its counterpart over nern Hudson Bay have trended less phased since
yesterday which is of note as it yields a less substantial cold
advection wing Wed night and hopefully staves off a hard freeze.
Delayed moisture entrainment ahead of this sys will keep rain
amounts down from what they could be given excellent frontal/upper
dynamics, heaviest south in proximity to deeper but late arriving
theta-e ridge. Chilly post frontal airmass follows Wed which sets
the stage for another widespread frost Wed night if not a freeze
although trend has ticked higher for overnight mins.

Strong rebound follows as pattern aloft across the CONUS reshuffles
in response to sig wrn-cntrl US troughing Thu onward which will
bring about unseasonably warm wx by next weekend as substantial
downstream thermal ridge builds. Steady pump of low level moisture
within broad/deepening warm sector periods of showers and increasing
thunder with time Fri-Mon although notable spread indicated with
timing/placement of wave disturbances ejecting out of the wrn US
longwave trough.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 642 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Return flow associated with a large anticyclone over the Gulf
states will persist through the TAF period. Winds will increase
with the approach of a cold front toward the end of the period.
VFR conditions will prevail through 23/12Z. Wind shear is likely
late in the period.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for
     INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
     116-203-204-216.
OH...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ078>081-177-
     277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 PM EDT
     Wednesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Skipper