Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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868 FXUS63 KIWX 302324 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 724 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Other than a stray shower possible Wednesday, showers and storms are more possible Friday and Monday. - Unseasonably warm through the week with highs generally in the 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 High pressure slides east supporting continued dry conditions into Wednesday, with dew points dropping into the upper 40s and low 50s, as well as a return to a warm air advection pattern. Lows are expected to be slightly warmer than last night, in the 50s. With the drier air lingering and despite the relatively low temperatures, dew point depressions in the upper single digits to teens out ahead of a weak cold front may allow for a low end slight chance PoP Wednesday morning with greater chances in the west before temps warm and re- establish higher dew point depressions in the I-69 corridor with mixing ensuing. Wednesday`s cold front rises back north as a warm front Thursday allowing for our warmest day this week with highs securely in the 80s. Mid level temperature anomalies amounting to 1 to 2 SDs above normal indicate possible capping and with minimal shear, this would indicate any PoP shower/storm Thursday afternoon is more of the pulse variety if they do form. Have retained slight to low end chance PoPs for that set up. There`s some question about how fast the cold front moves through on Friday and there`s a lack of shear notable on models with much of the forcing going north of the area. While some instability could be around depending on the speed of the FROPA, this likely stays sub- severe. The atmospheric column is dry on Saturday with the best moisture residing south of US-24. Perhaps there`s a pop shower or storm there during the afternoon so will retain some PoPs to accommodate that. After a brief break in the unsettled weather occurs for Sunday with a surface high pressure center moving through, the Monday through Tuesday period looks to see renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms. Temperature wise, the norm this week will be highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s, which is slightly above average for this time of year. The warmest day will be Thursday with highs securely into the 80s, but both Wednesday and Friday have chances for a few areas to see 80 degrees as well. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 656 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 The ridge axis will move east of the area with winds becoming temporarily light before increasing later tonight ahead of a cold front. A very brief intrusion of limited moisture along with some upper level support may generate isolated showers. Saturation deficits may not be able to be overcome. Have kept the mention of showers and lower ceilings out of the TAFs, although can not rule out a sprinkle or very brief intrusion of a MVFR ceiling between 09Z and 12Z. Otherwise, gusty winds will prevail nearly all of the day. Also, did mention LLWS especially at SBN late tonight. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Roller AVIATION...Skipper